FRANCE’S FOURTH REPUBLIC lasted from 1946 to 1958. In those 12 years it had 26 governments, two of which were in power for only two days. The Fifth Republic created by Charles de Gaulle in 1958 was meant to provide greater stability, thanks to a new electoral system and a strengthening of the powers of the president. It has worked pretty well. Until now.

PREMIUM

As none of the three big groups is close to holding a majority, you might think a coalition would be the way forward. But obstacles abound. The biggest is that the NFP bloc, the largest and the presumptive leader of the new government, is in confusion. It was hastily put together for the election, and uneasily yokes the hard-left anti-capitalists of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France (LFI) to the Socialists, the Greens and the remnants of France’s once-powerful Communist Party. These four cannot even agree on who should be their leader. Working out their policies will be still harder.

Another problem is that these parties may not want a deal with Ensemble. lfi nurses a reservoir of hatred for Mr Macron and his supposedly pro-rich policies. The Socialists look on the imperious president as a traitor, since he served as a minister under his predecessor, François Hollande, before splitting away to form his own party. Complicating matters further, some Socialists are also unwilling to work with the irascible, ruthless Mr Mélenchon. As one of their leading figures put it pithily: “Neither Robespierre nor Jupiter.”

Coaxing these elements together would be like getting porcupines to mate. Unlike Germany or the Netherlands, France has no history of calm, lengthy coalition negotiations. Even if they can form a coalition, the price is liable to be high. Mr Macron’s pension reforms, vital for France’s long-term fiscal stability, may be reversed in any deal. Big rises for the minimum wage also look likely, as well as expensive price controls on key household items. Perhaps a technocratic government, as has in the past worked in Italy, may be the answer. But that will not be formed until the alternatives are exhausted.

Whatever fix Mr Macron finds, the next few years will be tough. France is running a deficit of over 5% of gdp, and needs cuts, not more spending. Mr Macron’s pro-business reforms have helped raise productivity and job creation, but reform needs a foot on the accelerator, not the brake. And a France preoccupied with domestic political strife will find it hard to play its still-vital role in the European Union and beyond.

The battle for the Elysée

Those are just the short-term pitfalls. The deeper problem will come in 2027, when Mr Macron will be ineligible to run again for president, but Ms Le Pen will be raring for her fourth tilt at the big prize. The success of the “republican front”, the coming together of parties and voters to block the hard right, gives some cause for hope that the trick can be repeated. And yet the RN’s record is of steady advance. In the second round of the presidential election of 2017, Ms Le Pen got 34%; in 2022, she jumped to 41%. Likewise, her partially detoxified party got a measly 9% in the second round of the parliamentary election of 2017. But it almost doubled that, to 17%, in 2022; and almost doubled it again, to 32%, on July 7th. Today it complains of an establishment plot to keep it out of office. If political chaos lies ahead, it may well profit.

At some point, the republican front could fail, especially if radical-left LFI voters also come to feel that they are being excluded from power by a centrist stitch-up. Great wisdom and delicacy are now required in France. Instead of Jupiter or Robespierre, the country needs a Solomon.

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