Its publication also suggests that Western intelligence agencies are correct in their belief that Putin is not interested in compromise. The memorandum codifies what Putin has been saying all along — that the “root causes” of the war are NATO’s eastward expansion and fomenting Nazism in Ukraine.
The memorandum is “aimed at getting rid of the root causes of this conflict,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists Tuesday. “It would be wrong to expect some immediate decisions and a breakthrough here,” he said, adding that “we await the reaction to the memorandum” from Ukraine.
Ukraine and its Western supporters say Russian claims of Nazism are absurd, particularly when the country is governed by Zelenskyy, who is Jewish. NATO and its backers contend that the alliance has only grown because former Soviet republics, such as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, have voted to join in the hope of gaining protection from Russia.
Not only is Ukraine unlikely to accept Russia’s absolutist terms, scholars previously interviewed by NBC News believe that Russia knows they won’t. Many see the peace talks as a charade that both sides know will fail, only prolonged to avoid the ire and impatience of President Donald Trump.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev — always a hawkish voice — was unabashed in how he views these discussions at the lavish Ottoman-era Çırağan Palace.
“The negotiations in Istanbul are not needed for a compromise peace on unrealistic conditions invented by someone else,” Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on the messaging app Telegram. Rather, he said, the aim was “quick victory and the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi government.” He said this goal was “the point of the Russian memorandum, which was published yesterday.”
All the while, Russia, unlike Ukraine’s attacks on military targets, continues to bombard Ukrainian civilians. On Tuesday, it “brutally attacked” the embattled city of Sumy, Zelenskyy said, killing at least three people and injuring “many” more.
With both sides still diametrically opposed, Trump’s next move could prove pivotal.
Having once promised to end the war in 24 hours, he has become so frustrated with the intractable reality that he has threatened to walk away.
There are hopes of another Russian-American prisoner swap and even a meeting between the two presidents. And when the memorandum inevitably comes across Trump’s desk, and he is asked about it during one of his question-and-answer sessions in the Oval Office, the president could react in several different ways, according to Nixey, the Russia expert in London.
“Either he will say, ‘Yes, but look at what the Ukrainians have done to Russia, so this memorandum is unsurprising,” Nixey said. “Or he will say, ‘Putin is not playing ball. This hasn’t turned out like I thought it would. I’m washing my hands of the whole thing.”
Keir Simmons reported from Dubai and Alexander Smith reported from London.
