Opinion | Two creative ways for Hong Kong to keep its property market on an even keel


However, the question remains: were the cooling measures wholly to blame for the bleak market for secondary homes in the past couple of years? While they may have been a contributing factor, I would argue that mass emigration, the gloomy post-Covid-19 outlook for the world economy, the Russia-Ukraine war and other geopolitical conflicts, not to mention global interest rate hikes, all weighed on secondary home prices in this city.
The cooling measures could not have been the only factor contributing to the sliding prices. If they were, we would have seen a change in market sentiment after the chief executive announced an easing of some of the measures during his policy address in October.
On the other hand, a housing market meltdown could trigger a chain of economic catastrophes. For example, when home equity values fall below mortgage loan amounts, banks may be forced to recall loans, setting off a domino effect of defaults and foreclosures.

Therefore, it is crucial to strike a balance between cooling measures and the need to maintain a stable housing market. Otherwise, the blow to consumer confidence could have a knock-on effect on the overall economy.

03:02

Landslide reveals illegal basements under luxury Hong Kong homes

Landslide reveals illegal basements under luxury Hong Kong homes

As the financial secretary begins consultations ahead of his next budget speech, calls have been revived for the cooling measures to be scrapped, and for real estate to be brought back as a class of permissible investment assets under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme.

The scheme was introduced in 2003 in response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic, and is similar to investment-for-residency or “golden visa” programmes rolled out elsewhere.

In my opinion, the government could apply interim measures to stabilise the property market and prevent a collapse. While there is no need for drastic measures, I would encourage the government to adopt a more creative approach.

Draconian methods are not warranted now for several reasons. First, the Centa-City Index is still far from its record low of 31.34 points during the Sars epidemic in 2003. Second, the financial market remains stable and resilient, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Even though private home prices have fallen, they have merely returned to 2017 levels, which are said to be highly overvalued.

Don’t spare us the hard truth about Hong Kong’s finances

After all, this city is still struggling with a chronic housing shortage. The average waiting time for a public rental flat has crept up to 5.6 years, according to the latest government figures. The basic economic principles of demand and supply dictate that home prices will not plunge into an abyss if supply remains low. Indeed, home prices in general are still beyond the reach of ordinary people, let alone young workers.

Given this, if Hong Kong is to introduce measures to stabilise the residential home market, policymakers ought to be clear about the ultimate objective of such measures which, to me, should be to foster healthy, stable growth across the housing market and improve people’s living environment, but without creating a housing bubble.

Therefore, I would suggest the city reintroduce the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme, albeit with some restrictions. A modified version of the programme could help to revitalise Hong Kong’s housing market, increase public revenue and bolster the city’s image.

For better control, we could set an annual quota for applications and a minimum home price, with a view to preventing an overwhelming influx of new immigrants and an adverse impact on the mid-to-low end of the housing market that is favoured by first-time homebuyers.

The government could also consider offering further stamp duty relief to young couples if they need to sell their first home and upgrade to a larger unit to meet intergenerational needs (for example, to have more space for a newborn). In doing so, Hong Kong would be encouraging fertility and private home care for the elderly, while providing people with an opportunity to improve their living environment.
In any case, we should not let current property market sentiment cloud our judgment or throw us off course in dealing with some of the broader challenges that Hong Kong faces, such as shrinking exports, an ageing population and intense competition in our financial market.

The point to remember is that when the economy booms, demand for homes will return. Thus, what is most important is that our economic recovery goes full steam ahead so that people regain the confidence to purchase homes, against a backdrop of robust economic growth and rising incomes.

As the chief executive said, the property market needs time to react to the easing measures announced in October. Therefore, the best approach to the property market to adopt is to wait and see, while considering some creative ways to address challenges.

Ken Chu is group chairman and CEO of Mission Hills Group and a national committee member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference



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