Key points:
- China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y
- China Customs says detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal
- Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to US$3,700 per ounce
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs likely to weigh on global & Japanese economies
- Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation in industrial and supply chains
- Goldman Sachs cut their targets for Chinese stock indexes for a second time this month
- Trump says he’ll announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week
- USD/JPY back under 142.50 with Kato comments cited
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2110 (vs. estimate at 7.3251)
- Japan finance minister Kato says excess forex volatility is undesirab;e
- More forecasts for People’s Bank of China rate cuts flowing out of China
- Goldman Sachs lowers oil price forecasts on supply surplus outlook
- Japan Prime Minister Ishiba says cannot make continuous compromises in US talks
- Monetary Authority of Singapore eases monetary policy slightly, as expected
- China to step up stimulus, PBOC eyes rate and RRR cuts in Q2
- Iran, U.S. talks expected to continue Saturday in Rome
- UK house data – asking prices rise in April
- ICYMI – China imposes informal curbs on stock sales to support markets
- New Zealand retail sales indicator, March: -1.6% y/y (prior -4.2) & -0.8% m/m (prior +0.3)
- New Zealand data – March services PMI 49.1 (prior 49.0)
- Ray Dalio: Trump’s trade war has US on brink of recession
- US equity indexes open higher on Globex to begin the week’s trade
- US equity index trades begins soon – Globex – FX showing the way
- Weekend – Germany’s Merz said Trump’s tariff policies increase risk of a financial crisis
- Fed’s Kashkari reiterated the focus on keeping inflation under control
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 14 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- ICYMI – China halts rare earth exports after new controls, raising global supply concerns
- U.S. Trade Representative Greer also bumbling through explaining tariffs on electronics
- Trump says 20% tariff on computers, and smartphones (so, not 145%)
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 14 April 2025
- Lutnick: Electronics products will have special tariffs coming in a month or so
- Smartphones, computers and chips will still face 20% tariffs
- Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
- Deutsche Bank ECB preview: “The arguments now clearly favour a cut.”
Weekend headlines were dominated by Trump’s tariff reversal, with smartphones, computers, and other tech products reportedly exempted from the 145% tariff hike on Chinese goods — instead facing a trimmed 20% rate. Confusion soon followed, with conflicting statements from officials, and Trump himself muddying the waters on social media, insisting that “nobody is getting ‘off the hook’” and that “there was no Tariff ‘exception’ announced,” before later confirming the 20% figure. Trump added on Sunday evening (U.S. time) that he would announce the semiconductor tariff rate in the week ahead. The mix of abrupt policy shifts and muddled communication remains a feature of the current environment — unhelpful, but increasingly familiar.
Upon the reopening of Globex for the week, U.S. equity index futures rose.
Flying under the radar was significant news that China has halted exports of rare earth minerals and magnets, materials critical to sectors like autos, aerospace, and semiconductors.
In FX, USD/JPY slipped from around 143.75 following comments out of Japan that Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent would discuss FX volatility, with both agreeing that excessive moves are undesirable.
China:
- There were several reports flagging likely PBoC easing ahead, including possible interest rate and RRR cuts this quarter.
- China’s March trade data showed a sharp jump in exports, likely a result of front-loading ahead of tariff hikes.
- In Chinese equity markets, National Team support was reported, along with further restrictions on stock selling. As of writing, the Shanghai Composite is up 1%.
Singapore’s MAS eased policy for a second straight meeting, citing a deteriorating global outlook. The central bank said it would continue allowing a modest, gradual appreciation of the S$NEER band, but reduce the pace of appreciation. The width and centre of the band remain unchanged.
EUR/USD gapped a little lower early on Monday but rose to a high above 1.14. As of posting its back around 1.1365.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in three years.
In commodities:
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Gold surged to a record above US$3,243.
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Oil markets were supported by reports that U.S.–Iran talks progressed over the weekend, with direct (perhaps) talks expected to resume Saturday.
Finally, in geopolitics, future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would be willing to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, adding that they could be used to strike high-value Russian targets — explicitly mentioning the Crimean Bridge.
USD/JPY:
