May 2026 A political earthquake reshapes British politics as Keir Starmer fights for his political survival

The Elections: A National Referendum on Starmer
Elections for about 5,000 seats on 136 local councils in England, as well as in the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales, became the United Kingdom’s most significant test of public opinion before the next general election, due in 2029.

From the moment results began rolling in, it became clear this was no ordinary election. The ballot was widely seen as an unofficial referendum on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose popularity has plummeted since he was elected less than two years ago.

The Scale of Labour’s Losses
The results were devastating for Labour. By Saturday morning, the net picture showed Reform gaining 1,244 councilors and 114 councils, while Labour lost 1,022 councilors and 31 councils. The Conservatives lost 417 councilors and 8 councils, while the Greens gained 297 councilors and the Liberal Democrats gained 151.

Labour shed hundreds of local councilors across England, facing humiliation as it lost control of key authorities across its traditional heartlands squeezed on all sides by Reform, the populist left-wing Green Party, and a loose coalition of anti-establishment independents angered over Gaza.

Reform UK took control of at least five councils, including Newcastle-under-Lyme, Essex, Havering, Suffolk, and Sunderland areas that were once solid Labour turf.

Wales: Labour’s Century-Long Dominance Ends
Perhaps the most stunning result came from Wales. In a land Labour has dominated politically for a century, the party dropped to single figures in terms of Senedd seat numbers, and its First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her own seat.

In Wales, Labour lost power for the first time, with Plaid Cymru, the left-wing pro-Welsh independence party, coming first and Reform second. First Minister Eluned Morgan declared: “The people of Wales rejected Welsh Labour. I am taking responsibility and I am resigning.”
Labour has dominated Wales since 1922 and had a majority of seats in every election since the formation of their National Assembly in 1997. Labour now sits as the country’s third most popular party there.

Scotland: SNP Holds On
In Scotland, where there was an election for the devolved parliament at Holyrood, the Scottish National Party emerged as the biggest party but fell short of a majority. (Nigerian Eye) The SNP continued its dominance after 19 years in power in Scotland, reversing its fortunes from the 2024 Westminster elections when Labour claimed dozens of Scottish seats.

Reform UK: A Historic Shift
The night’s clear winner was Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party. Reform UK gained over 1,400 seats, up from just two previously held, becoming the largest party nationally. Farage declared: “What’s happened is truly a historic shift in British politics.”

Reform won hundreds of local council seats in working-class areas in England’s north, wiping Labour out in places like Hartlepool once considered solid Labour turf. President Donald Trump has repeatedly praised Farage and called him a close friend and ally.

The results reflect a fragmentation of British politics after decades of domination by Labour and the Conservatives, with leaders across the political spectrum declaring that “two-party politics is dead and buried.”

Why Did Labour Fall So Far?
Starmer’s popularity plunged after repeated missteps and U-turns on policies such as welfare reform. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living tasks made harder by the Iran war, which has choked off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

His time in office has been further marked by the disastrous appointment of Peter Mandelson a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein as Britain’s ambassador to the United States.

Since taking power in parliamentary elections in July 2024 with sweeping Labour victories across the UK, Starmer has become increasingly unpopular among British voters, with 70% saying he is performing “poorly” according to YouGov.

Stay or Go? The Pressure on Starmer
The question dominating British politics on Saturday morning was simple: should Starmer resign?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted he will not resign. “The voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. I was elected to meet those challenges and I’m not going to walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos,” he said.

In a defiant op-ed for the Guardian, the Prime Minister wrote: “While we must respond to the message that voters have sent us, that doesn’t mean tacking right or left. It means bringing together a broad political movement, being assertive about our values, bold in our vision and addressing people’s demands.”

But the voices calling for him to go were growing louder. Labour MP Jonathan Brash said: “It’s clear to me that the prime minister should take this opportunity to set out a timetable for his own departure, and then allow for the widest possible leadership election that includes all the talents of our party.”

Labour-affiliated union the Transport Salaried Staffs Association called for Starmer’s resignation, with its general secretary warning: “Joe Biden did exactly that in the US, and it’s clear from these results that we’re facing a similar catastrophe unless Labour changes leadership and direction.”

Veteran Manchester MP Graham Stringer, who called his party’s results in Manchester City Council “the worst results in Manchester for 60 years,” also joined the chorus demanding the PM’s departure.

Who Could Replace Him?
Poor election results could trigger a challenge from a high-profile rival such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, or Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Alternatively, Starmer could face pressure from the party to set a timetable for his departure after an orderly leadership contest.

Crucially however, none of Starmer’s perceived leadership rivals such as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham or former deputy leader Angela Rayner had called on him to quit as the weekend approached.

Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy cautioned the party not to topple the prime minister, saying: “You don’t change the pilot during the flight.”

What Happens Next?
Starmer has scheduled a speech for Monday in which he will address the results and set out his response. Even if Starmer survives for now, many analysts doubt he will lead the party into the next national election, which must be held by 2029.

The 2026 local elections have delivered a clear and brutal verdict from British voters a verdict that has shaken the foundations of a Labour Party that came to power just two years ago with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in modern British history. Whether Keir Starmer can recover, or whether these results mark the beginning of the end of his premiership, will define British politics for years to come.

Mustapha Bature Sallama.
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal investigation and Intelligence Analysis.
International Conflict Management and Peace Building.USIP
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