How markets are responding to Trump’s election win

In the early morning hours of Wednesday, the news broke: Former President Donald Trump secured enough electoral college votes to win the presidency.

Whether that alleviates or heightens anxiety for you, it does mean that a great amount of uncertainty has been eliminated. There will be no protracted legal battles over the results for the rest of the year. And that certainty is something that markets are responding to.

On this day after the election, “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio spoke with two economists to get their take on how markets are responding to the election news. First, we’re joined by Ben Kumar, head of equity strategy at Seven Investment Management. You can listen to the interview by clicking the audio player below.

David Brancaccio: The shorthand for this is called “the Trump trade.” Take me through the logic of some of this, starting with stocks. What general categories are they buying here and what’s the strategy?

Ben Kumar: U.S. stocks is basically the strategy. I mean, the Dow and the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. One of the other interesting ones to look at is the Russell 2000, which are smaller U.S. companies, and that, when I last checked, was up 5% to 6%. You know, there is a real feeling that it means domestic U.S. strength is back on the cards, which aligns at least with some of the things Donald Trump has been saying. And it seems that markets are prepared at least, today, to believe it.

Brancaccio: Now, some of these U.S.-based companies are, of course, multinational corporations, and some will argue that the tariffs the next president is promising will add friction to the economy, contribute to inflation, clog the arteries of world trade. That would presumably hurt profits in some of these companies that people are buying this morning.

Kumar: Yeah, I think that’s absolutely right. There’s a version of Tesla shares that’s traded in Frankfurt in Germany that’s up 15 or 16%. But you know, if tariffs start going in and Chinese retaliation comes through, Tesla’s not guaranteed to keep doing better. So you’re absolutely right. But I think this morning, you know, what we’re seeing, before any of the detail comes out, is just a general wave of optimism and actually, I think, a wave of relief that this isn’t going to drag on for another month or two months. We are done now and can start looking to the future and see what’s next for a U.S. economy that feels, you know — if you listen to Donald Trump — like it’s ready to get growing again.

Brancaccio: Yeah, there’s this VIX index we have here out of Chicago, the so-called fear index of stock market volatility — way down this morning, bolstering your point there. Now, the bond market — down sharply, pushing the 10-year interest rate up sharply this morning. What’s the logic there?

Kumar: Well, I mean, some of the stuff that has been said, if you look at the actual manifestos and things is there will be more borrowing under a Trump presidency than there would under a Kamala Harris presidency, to the tune of nearly $4 trillion more. But if you’re going to borrow, and doing that manages to get growth going. Actually, that’s not too bad a shape of things. However, that growth will be 234, years in the future. So as of today, bond markets a little bit more sensible. They’re just going they’re going to be borrowing more, so we probably want to charge them a little bit.

The back of former President Donald Trump as he walks onto a red stage in front of a sea of people.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center early Wednesday morning. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Next, let’s bring in economist Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas-Austin, for her take. Listen to her interview by clicking the audio player below.

David Brancaccio: They call it “the Trump trade,” but make sure we understand this.

Julia Coronado: Yeah, so the Trump trade is there’s going to be tax cuts, there’s going to be tariffs, and it’s going to expand the deficit. And what that means is a higher dollar, higher inflation and therefore higher interest rates. But [it’s] good for stocks.

Brancaccio: All right, so greater deficit — I thought this talk of cutting $2 trillion out of the federal budget with billionaire Elon Musk and hedge funder John Paulson might help with that?

Coronado: Yeah, that’s not what the Committee for the Responsible Budget estimates. They estimated that Trump’s proposals could add $7.5 trillion to $8 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. And it’s always easier to give sugar rather than spice, so cutting taxes is the highest priority, and the market is betting that’s what’s going to happen, especially given the strength of the win.

Brancaccio: Indeed. Now, look at the rush into stocks. I mean, I would have expected people to be buying fossil fuel companies this morning, but it’s much more broad-based.

Coronado: Yeah, Trump’s coming in on a very good economy and a U.S. outperformance. So the presumption is that if you then add tax cuts on top of that, that will be good for growth in a broad-based way. Of course, tariffs could hurt growth. So this is the immediate reaction — how that all plays out over time remains to be seen.

Brancaccio: And as we look, to go back to your previous point, at the higher interest rates this morning, that makes the U.S. dollar more attractive. You’re seeing all this play out in currency markets today.

Coronado: Absolutely. These moves are huge, so big jumps in longer-term interest rates, just as we were hoping they were about to come down and a much stronger dollar against most currencies.

Brancaccio: So the Federal Reserve that starts to meet today and has a verdict on interest rates tomorrow is going to be tugging in the opposite direction.

Coronado: That’s right. The Fed has been trying to lower rates to give the economy a break and to stimulate the housing sector and other interest-sensitive sectors, but it doesn’t control longer-term interest rates. So they’ll probably go forward with a 25 basis point rate cut, but that’s not going to flow through into lower mortgage rates or borrowing rates, because the longer-term interest rates are being driven off those expectations for higher inflation and higher deficits.

There’s a lot happening in the world.  Through it all, Marketplace is here for you. 

You rely on Marketplace to break down the world’s events and tell you how it affects you in a fact-based, approachable way. We rely on your financial support to keep making that possible. 

Your donation today powers the independent journalism that you rely on. For just $5/month, you can help sustain Marketplace so we can keep reporting on the things that matter to you.  

Source link

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

Related Article

3 Breakout Growth Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade

The year is drawing to a close, and what a year it has been for the stock market. As of this writing, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 26%, 28%, and 19%, respectively. That said, there are many growth stocks that have far outpaced the benchmark indexes and could

How a Trump Trade War Could Play Out for the Stock Market

Donald Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on some of America’s top trading partners doesn’t bode well for the stock market. If the President-elect follows through on his social-media-announced plan to slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Wall Street analysts expect some specific stock sectors to suffer. A separate Trump pledge to inflict an additional

3 Breakout Growth Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade

The year is drawing to a close, and what a year it has been for the stock market. As of this writing, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 26%, 28%, and 19%, respectively. That said, there are many growth stocks that have far outpaced the benchmark indexes and could

Dow Closes Above 45,000 for First Time; S&P 500, Nasdaq Stretch Records

Market Closed – USA 04:39:11 2024-12-04 pm EST After hours 04:01:11 pm 6,086.49 PTS +0.61% 6,085.48 -0.02% This article is reserved for members Not a member ? Free registration Tech rally, Powell comments boost indexes to record closing highs Dec. 04 RE Astera Labs Insider Sold Shares Worth $13,593,865, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Dow closes above 45K for first time as Nasdaq, S&P 500 all hit all-time highs

All three major US stock indexes scored record closing highs on Wednesday as technology shares rallied after upbeat results from Salesforce and as comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a late boost to the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 45,000 for the first time, climbing 308.51 points, or 0.7%, to 45,014.04. The S&P

Notable Wednesday Option Activity: TSLA, DAKT, COIN

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Tesla Inc (Symbol: TSLA), where a total volume of 1.0 million contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 103.8 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100

What’s Going On With Magnificent 7 Stocks?

What’s Going On With Magnificent 7 Stocks? Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Aswath Damodaran, finance professor at New York Univerisity’s Stern School of Business, told Bloomberg Television on Monday that he recommends buying any of the Magnificent Seven stocks on dips.  What To

How a Dior handbag, a tax scandal, and a furore over the price of spring onions triggered Yoon Suk Yeol’s downfall

Backed into a political corner, with a hostile parliament and tanking approval ratings, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol opted for the nuclear option. In a late-night televised address, the beleaguered president and former prosecutor announced he was imposing martial law. “To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist

Can STM’s Partnership With Renault’s Ampere Push the Stock Upward?

STMicroelectronics STM shares have plunged 48.6% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis against the Zacks  Semiconductor-General industry and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s return of 127.4% and 29.8%, respectively. Over the same time frame, shares of its competitors, including NVIDIA NVDA, Amtech Systems ASYS and Texas Instruments TXN, have climbed 183.2%, 35.9% and 15.7%, respectively.

U.S. Stocks Rise After Tech Companies Report Gains Boosted By AI

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday after tech companies reported better-than-expected revenue boosted by using artificial intelligence (AI). Stock Indexes Climb The three major stock indexes, which measure how stocks perform, were up early Wednesday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4 percent in morning trading while the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 181 points (0.4 percent)

Delaware struggles with Tesla investors’ disregard for governance

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter. Does Elon Musk really need more money? Tesla shares are up 42 per cent this year, much of that since the election of the billionaire’s new best friend Donald Trump as president last month. As

Is Sirius XM Finally a Tesla Stock Play?

A nagging blindspot for Sirius XM Holdings (NASDAQ: SIRI) investors and most Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) drivers is finally starting to fade in the rearview mirror. Tesla’s best-selling vehicles — the Model Y, Model 3, and Cybertruck — don’t ship with factory-installed satellite radios. Only the higher-priced Model S and Model X come with Sirius XM

Tech stocks hit first all-time high since July

Yuichiro Chino | Moment | Getty Images Technology stocks powered to new highs on Wednesday as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 1% and investors poured into key software and megacap players. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) advanced 1.5%, rallying for its fourth straight day since mid-October and knocking out its previous high touched

Palantir Technologies Stock Rises after U.S. Government Upgrades Its Authorization

Big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) company Palantir Technologies (PLTR) continues its winning streak this year after being granted FedRAMP High Authorization by the U.S. government. FedRAMP is a federal government program that seeks secure cloud services. With it, the government can standardize security and risk assessment for cloud technologies and federal agencies. Don’t Miss

Tesla Stock: Is TSLA Outperforming the Consumer Discretionary Sector?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), headquartered in Austin, Texas, designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems. With a market cap of $1.1 trillion, the company owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers. Companies worth $200 billion or more are generally described as “mega-cap

Protesters say South Korea martial law shows ‘how easily democracy can be threatened’

Seoul CNN  —  Candle-lit vigils and rallies were held across South Korea on Wednesday, a nation outraged and frustrated by the president’s surprise declaration of martial law the night before called for his resignation. Outside the National Assembly Hall in the capital Seoul, hundreds of people gathered on the steps as inside, opposition parties attempted

These 3 Outstanding Dividend-Growth Stocks Could Fund Your Retirement

Dividend-growth investing remains one of the most reliable paths to building lasting wealth in the stock market. The appeal of steady, rising income streams is particularly compelling for retirement planning. After all, traditional fixed-income investments often struggle to keep pace with inflation, making dividend-growth stocks an essential component of a well-designed retirement strategy. While many

Nobody wants to be short this market: “equity repo” edition

Stay informed with free updates Simply sign up to the Equities myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox. The cost of living has been on everybody’s mind. But won’t anyone spare a thought for the cost of leverage? It’s going up, says Société Générale (with our emphasis): The cost of funding synthetic (i.e. leveraged)

Meet the Investment That Billionaires David Shaw, Israel Englander, and Ray Dalio Are Buying That Could Turn $300 per Month Into $1 Million

Billionaire investors have reached their investment successes through many years of smart stock picking. They’ve generally chosen the right stocks and industries at the right moments and have held on for the long term. For example, many saw the artificial intelligence (AI) boom accelerating, so scooped up shares of key players such as chip leader

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x