Courtesy: Dominique Herailh

This data is courtesy of the French Swimming Federation.

The French Swimming Federation has released detailed statistics on all the swimming finals at the Paris Olympics, and one of the most intriguing races of the meet, the men’s 200 fly, offers some interesting insights.

Let’s start with a general analysis of the race before going into detail. Although this article’s subject is related to the duel between Leon Marchand and Kristof Milak, it’s important to add a third man who will play an important role in the coming years, Canadian bronze medalist Ilya Kharun.

This first table gives a breakdown of the 200-meter event and the portion each athlete spent underwater.

• The total distance traveled underwater shows the advantage that Marchand has off the walls. Milak only travels 88.8% of Marchand’s distance underwater and Kharun is at 93.6% of his former ASU teammate.
• The speed of the underwaters brings a slight surprise. Milak is slightly faster (2.109 vs 2.085) than Marchand under the water overall, though all of his advantage came off the blocks. If we do not take into account the start in which Milak outclassed all his opponents (see table below in the article), the other three underwaters are to Marchand’s advantage (1.856 vs. 1.833 for Milak and 1.820 for Kharun).
• The swimming speed is similar between Marchand and Milak (1.702 vs 1.700) while Kharum is at 1.686.

First takeaway: Marchand has room to make up at the start while Milak has room to make up underwater.

Now, let’s break down the race by 50.

The reaction time was the same for all three swimmers: 0.67 seconds. Note however that these are the three slowest times in the field, with the fastest being Krzysztof Chmielewski (0.61).

Start To 15 Meters

Milak and Marchand’s 15-meter times are 1-2 in the field, while Kharun is 4th behind Noe Ponti.

15 Meters To 50 Meters

Milak has opened up a gap in this first leg. He increased his 15-meter lead from 0.26 to 0.64. The speeds of Marchand and Kharun are essentially identical.

First Turn

Not only did Marchand travel the farthest off the first turn, but he was also traveling the fastest which allowed him to gain 12 one-hundredths under water. The 15-meter splits were: Marchand 7.90, Milak 8.02 and Kharun 8.10. At 65 meters the situation is as follows: Milak 32.34, Marchand +0.52 and Kharun +0.82.

65 Meters to 100 Meters

In this segment, Milak did not completely absorb the advantage of Marchand obtained on the underwater, but was close (0.08 vs 0.12). Kharun, seeing himself slightly behind at 65 meters, produced his effort to try to catch up with the two leading swimmers. At 100 metres the ranking is as follows: Milak 52.86, Marchand +0.60 and Kharun +0.81.

Second turn

Again, Marchand traveled the farthest and was the fastest underwater. At 115 meters, Milak held the lead with a time of 1:01.06 followed by Marchand +0.57 and Kharun +1.05

115 Meters To 150 Meters

While Marchand was perfectly consistent in scoring the same time with a hundredth of a second as he did from 65 to 100, Milak put in a surge that may have compromised his chances of winning. At 150 metres the ranking was as follows: Milak 1:21.52, Marchand +0.72 and Kharun +1.52.

Third turn

The third turn marks the start of the climb that will see Marchand close the fastest and ultimately win. At 165 meters, Milak was still leading with a time of 1:30.09 followed by Marchand at 0.41 and Kharun +1.44.

165 Meters To 200 Meters

At the finish, Marchand touched in 1:51.21 followed by Milak (1:51.75) and Kharun (1:52.80).

Marchand’s consistency over the last three 50s over the water (35-meter speed is notable: 1.699, 1.698 and 1.690, a standard deviation of 0.00411. So we can think that he built his race by measuring his efforts up to 150 meters without worrying about the lead taken by Milak.

Milak was far less consistent across the closing three 50s over the water. His speeds were 1.705, 17.11 and 1.616, a standard deviation of 0.04342.

Kharun also measured his efforts better than Milak: 1.706, 1.672 and 1.646 for a standard deviation of 0.02463 or a lower dispersion of data than those of Milak but shy of Marchand.

This last graph shows the underwater speeds achieved during the 3 turns. The third turn clearly shows the drop in Milak’s regime which will be confirmed in the last length.

Conclusion

In my opinion, Marchand won because he built his race better than Milak. Swimming with more consistency, he was able to keep something in reserve to finish his last 50 in 28.97 which is more than one second faster than Milak. On the other hand, the length of his underwaters and the speed with which he made them allowed him to remain in contact until the last 50.

Milak was perhaps too confident that he could establish an early lead and stay away, or knew going out fast was his best chance to win. His push on the third 50 resulted in him not leaving enough in the tank for the last length, where Marchand made his move. Knowing that he was perhaps a little short in closing speed, he tried to build up an advance before the last leg but this proved insufficient.

Kharun made a race that is somewhat symmetrical with Marchand’s but less effective in the underwaters and a little slower over the water.

Anyway, these three swimmers gave us a show that made not only the spectators of the Arena Défense but also all those who were in front of their screens. Michael Phelps’s reaction, filmed by NBC, will be remembered forever.