- The EUR/USD currency pair’s attempt to recover at the end of last week with gains to the 1.0530 level quickly evaporated and returned downward this week.
- Today, the euro-dollar pair plummeted today to the support level of 1.0425 ahead of important US data.
- The performance confirms our technical view that the EUR/USD will remain in its downward range and any upward rebound may be a selling opportunity.
Will the EUR/USD rise in the coming days?
So far, most technical and momentum indicators are still clear in expecting further decline in the performance of the EUR/USD pair. Accordingly you should expect more weakness. Subsequently, if the selling wave returns, the lowest support levels recorded by the currency pair in recent trading sessions at 1.0331, the lowest for the currency pair in two years, will be retested, followed by a test of the support level at 1.02. However, tactically, there is room for some strength in the coming days with a correction of the recent excessive selling levels. The relative improvement in the performance of the currency pair came after the announcement of the candidate for the position of US Treasury Secretary, which gave some optimism to investors and markets.
The State of the German Economy and Its Impact
According to forex market trading, the euro price was affected by economic data that showed that the German Ifo business climate index fell from 86.5 in October to 85.7 in November, weaker than the expected reading of 86.0. In the same announcement, the current conditions index fell from 85.7 to 84.3 and the expectations index fell from 87.3 to 87.2. Overall, the reading confirms that the German economy is still in recession. Therefore, the outlook for next year 2025 is also weak as the loss of competitiveness in industry. Moreover, the adverse demographic structure is likely to offset any boost from recovery in real household incomes and monetary easing.
Concurrently, the BCI index is consistent with a sharp contraction in German GDP, as is last week’s November Purchasing Managers’ Index survey. Also, the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell further into recession territory in November. The next major release will be eurozone inflation figures, which could determine whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by a large 50 basis points in its interest rate decision next month.
European Inflation Figures Under the Microscope
According to this week’s economic calendar, forex traders will be focusing on the official German inflation figures next Thursday. Similarly, Spain releases inflation figures on the same day. As is well known, the German and Spanish releases often serve as a good guide to where the Eurozone inflation release – due on Friday – will fall and because of this, the impact on the Euro could be significant if there are any surprise deviations from expectations.
Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation is forecast to rise to 2.4% from 2.0% in October, which would ensure the ECB sticks to a 25-basis point cut next month. However, if inflation data comes in lower than expected, the ECB may consider cutting interest rates by a larger amount, especially in light of last week’s disappointing PMI data. If so, the euro could come under pressure against other major currencies, especially the US dollar.
Trump’s Policies Continue to Support the US Dollar
The US dollar continued to make further gains against other major currencies. Optimism was dampened by the name of the new US Treasury Secretary. Furthermore, Trump promised that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Comparably, he pledged to impose 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada, which led to a decline in their currencies by about 1% each. Simultaneously, the US dollar index DXY returned to stability above the 107.00 resistance, near its highest level in two years.
In general, risk sentiment is now collapsing due to the risks of Trump’s tariffs – the dollar is seen as a safe haven. According to reliable trading platforms, the US dollar recorded gains today against all currencies except the Japanese yen in Asian trading. In the same performance, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.29% after declining by 13 basis points in the last session.
EUR/USD Analysis Today:
Technically, the overall trend of the EUR/USD currency pair remains downward. As we previously advised, dear reader, you should expect any gains for the EUR/USD currency pair to evaporate quickly and the expectations of the EUR/USD parity become stronger. Currently, the closest support levels are 1.0420, 1.0330, and 1.0200, which are sufficient to push all technical indicators towards oversold levels.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
No matter how strong and accurate the analysis is, you should always work with a trading strategy of not risking and activating profit and stop loss orders to ensure the safety of your trading account from any price surprises, especially in the Trump era.
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