Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures sink amid cratered hopes for 2025 rate cuts

Tech led a slide in US stock futures on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields climbed amid fading hopes for interest-rate cuts ahead of this week’s key consumer inflation report.

S&P 500 futures (ES=F) sank 0.8%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) tumbled 1.2%. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), which includes fewer tech stocks, fell 0.3%.

Stocks are shaping up for another rough session after Friday’s plunge, which wiped out all year-to-date gains for Wall Street’s major gauges. A hot December jobs report has rattled markets, spurring concern that signs of strength in the economy will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.

DJI – Delayed Quote USD

At close: January 10 at 4:56:48 PM EST

^DJI ^IXIC ^GSPC

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added to recent gains to touch a 14-month high, trading close to 4.8%, and the 30-year yield (^TYX) neared 5% as US bonds sold off. Meanwhile, the dollar (DX-Y.NYB) surged to a two-year high against major currency peers, with the UK pound (GBPUSD=X) in particular coming under pressure.

As of Monday, traders are betting there will be no rate cut until at least September, per the CME FedWatch tool, and that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by just 30 basis points in the whole of 2025.

That has intensified the spotlight on the Consumer Price Index reading for December, due on Wednesday, given one big concern for markets is that inflation won’t cool to the central bank’s 2% target.

Adding to the gloom, oil prices rose around 2% to their highest levels in five months after the US imposed tougher sanctions on Russia’s crude industry than expected, risking supply to China and India. Brent (BZ=F) climbed to over $81 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) changed hands above $78.

On the corporate front, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) slid as all the “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps lost ground in the market turmoil. Europe’s largest pension fund revealed that it sold its entire stake in Tesla over CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.

LIVE 1 update

  • Another risk-off morning

    Investors awake to markets continuing their post-red-hot jobs report tantrum.

    CME – Delayed Quote USD

    As of 7:29:45 AM EST. Market Open.

    In focus remains the rise in yields and now, the rise in energy prices. Both of these things happening at the same time is the worst possible scenario for the bulls. At the time of this writing, pre-market weakness is being seen in top momentum names such as Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA).

    Important point this morning by the Goldman Sachs team:

    “The move in rates is also now tightening financial conditions such that it may weigh on growth and risk assets. Positions that benefit from lower US yields now look more attractive, especially for portfolios that already embrace the US growth theme.”

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