The Confederation of African Football will host the annual CAF Awards ceremony in at Le Palais des Congrès in Marrakech, Morocco on Monday, where the continent’s top players, coaches and teams will be honoured.

CAF initially revealed a 10-man shortlist for the men’s Player of the Year award, with Amine Gouiri, Edmond Tapsoba, Chancel Mbemba, Soufiane Rahimi and William Troost-Ekong ultimately being cut from the final five.

Ahead of the event, ESPN’s Ed Dove examines why Nigeria’s Ademola Lookman appears primed to become the 40th different player to win the coveted African Footballer of the Year award.

Hakimi set for second best, again?

Of the nominees still in contention, perhaps only one – Achraf Hakimi – would have been predicted as one of this year’s contenders 12 months ago. Indeed, Hakimi was also nominated last time around, and ultimately finished second in the voting behind only Nigeria‘s Victor Osimhen.

During the period in question for this year’s award – January to October 2024 – he won a French league-and-cup double with Paris Saint-Germain, and was named in the Ligue 1 Team of the Year.

He impressed at the Olympics, scoring in Morocco’s 4-0 quarterfinal rout over the United States as the North Africans ultimately clinched bronze, but ultimately failed in his two major objectives – at the Africa Cup of Nations and in the Champions League.

In the latter, PSG limped out against Borussia Dortmund in the semifinal, while Hakimi was part of an underwhelming Morocco showing as they didn’t even reach the Last Eight at the AFCON, with the fullback missing a decisive penalty against South Africa.

Considering what we’ve seen from the rightback in the past, this was a frustrating period, and hardly one worthy of an African Footballer of the Year.

The long shots despite superb years

Up against Hakimi in that magnificent Bafana Bafana victory was goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, the only Africa-based player to make the final five.

Impressive at the Nations Cup, where he broke a CAF record by saving four penalties in a single shootout, Williams was nominated for the Yashin Award by FIFA, and also clinched yet another PSL title with Mamelodi Sundowns.

No South African has ever won an AFOTY prize, while there hasn’t been a goalkeeper named Africa’s finest since Ezzaki Badou in 1986. That run isn’t going to end on Monday, although expect Williams to leave Marrakech with at least one of the other awards for which he has been nominated.

Like Hakimi, Guinea‘s Serhou Guirassy has also made the final five again after initially being named among the nominees for the 2023 award.

Certainly, he can look back on a magnificent 2024, having ended the last Bundesliga season with 28 goals in 28 appearances for Stuttgart. 11 of those goals came in the first half of 2024, before the Guinea striker ultimately secured a summer move to Borussia Dortmund.

After an injury setback, he’s begun this season where he left off – with six goals in 10 league outings as well as four in five in the Champions League – demonstrating that, despite being a late bloomer, he firmly belongs at a club the size of Dortmund.

Guirassy made the Bundesliga Team of the Year alongside Nigeria’s Victor Boniface, although while the Bayer Leverkusen man ended the season having played a key part in an astonishing title success, ‘Super Serhou’ did not pick up any silverware.

Similarly, it was a testing year for Guinea’s Syli Nationale; they reached the quarters during an AFCON campaign which largely passed a half-fit Guirassy by, and they missed out on next year’s continental showpiece after a miserable qualifying campaign, even though their star striker netted six goals.

Despite his undisputed threat in front of goal, is this really the resume of an African Footballer of the Year?

A similar question could be asked about the fourth nominee, Simon Adingra. A talented prospect, no doubt, and the Ivorian certainly delivered some eye-catching showings at the AFCON; equalising at the death in the chaotic quarterfinal against Mali and then contributing two assists as the Elephants defeated Nigeria in the final.

The 22-year-old emerged as one of the unlikely heroes of the Ivorians’ ‘back from the dead’ revival at their tournament on home soil, and also netted his first career double during a fine showing for Brighton against Sheffield United in February.

He’s scored four goals since then, struggling to command a consistent starting spot under new Seagulls boss Fabian Hurzeler and finding himself regularly behind Kaoru Mitoma in the pecking order.

In truth, barring his two crucial interventions at the AFCON, Adingra has done precious little to justify his inclusion in this shortlist, and his addition is evidence of the overwhelming prominence CAF have given the Nations Cup in drawing up their final five.

The inclusion of the likes of Adingra and Williams over, for example, Mohamed Salah, Champions League winner Brahim Díaz, Bayer’s Victor Boniface, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mohammed Kudus, Yassine Bounou and Victor Osimhen (15 goals during the period in question) indicates the weighting given to notable AFCON contributions.

Saving the best for last

Despite all of this, it’s surely Ademola Lookman who deserves to be honoured as Africa’s finest in 2024.

The 27-year-old was Nigeria’s key creative force at the Nations Cup, inspiring the Super Eagles’ attacking unit with Osimhen not at his sharpest, and showcasing his inventiveness as the West African giants reached an unexpected final.

Troost-Ekong was named Player of the Tournament, but it was Lookman’s double against Cameroon in the Last 16, and winner against Angola in the quarter that gave Nigeria the momentum to progress.

Unlike Williams or Adingra, however, the AFCON wasn’t the highlight of Lookman’s year, and he compensated for Nigeria’s final defeat with his hat-trick in Atalanta‘s Europa League final victory over previously undisputed Bayer Leverkusen in Dublin in May.

It was an unforgettable showing, and surely the highlight of Lookman’s career – which hasn’t always enjoyed a steady upwards trajectory – to date. Thanks to the Nigerian, Atalanta won the first continental title in their history, and a first major honour since 1963, while ending Bayer’s 51-match unbeaten streak in the process.

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He became the first player to score a hat-trick in the Europa League/UEFA Cup final since 1975, and the fastest to register a treble in the fixture, doing so within 26 minutes. In fact, only five players had previously scored hat-tricks in the final of any major UEFA club competition, and never before has an African achieved the feat.

During the rest of the year, for Atalanta, Lookman has maintained a high level of performance while establishing himself as one of Serie A‘s most watchable players. The Atalanta Player of the Season made the Team of the Year for the Europa League, and ended the season having had a direct hand in 18 top flight goals for La Dea.

He’s maintained that form so far this term, registering 12 goals and assists combined in 12 Serie A showings to take Atalanta to first position in the Italian top tier. He’s also flourishing in the Champions League this season, prompting media links to the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Paris Saint-Germain, Liverpool, Juventus and others.

“Over the past two and a half years, I’ve been able to have consistency in playing,” Lookman told CBS Sports Golazo after scoring and being named Man of the Match in Atalanta’s 3-2 defeat by Real Madrid on Tuesday.

“It’s just timing, really. That consistency has come into my game, allowing me to improve and show my qualities,” he added. “It comes with the circumstances as well, so I’ll take it as it comes and continue to improve”

In truth, Lookman is surely the only rightful option to clinch African football’s top individual men’s prize next week.