“He is the most decisive player in the world.”

That was Carlo Ancelotti’s verdict on Vinicius Junior in February 2023 after he dismantled Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League round of 16.

With Real Madrid 2-0 down inside 14 minutes, Vinicius Jr curled home from the left side of the box before unwittingly deflecting a poor Alisson clearance into the net to claw them level by half-time. The Brazil international added an assist midway through the second half, measuring his run before setting up Karim Benzema on the break to give Madrid a 5-2 win.

A player who has faced adversity throughout his career, it is no surprise that Vinicius Jr has often thrived under the bright European midweek lights in the second half of the season.

For Madrid’s last-16 first leg against Manchester City tonight, The Athletic analyses what makes the 25-year-old so dangerous in this phase of the Champions League.

Playing for Madrid, who have routinely prioritised Champions League glory inspired by bursts of quality over the year-long slog of La Liga, meant Vinicius Jr was thrust into high-pressure European nights early in his career.

In 2018-19, his debut season in the Spanish capital, he played nearly as many minutes in the Champions League last 16 (116) as he did in the group stage (118). His first start of consequence in the competition came in the first leg of Madrid’s infamous defeat to Ajax in the first knockout stage.

That game would provide a blueprint of sorts for some of his best performances in the competition. Vinicius Jr had only 38 touches, while winning three fouls and attempting just 18 passes. One of those 18 was the assist for the opener after meeting a pass in behind and dribbling into the box, pulling defenders towards him before passing to Benzema.

The following season, he again played just 118 minutes in the group stage before starting at the Bernabeu against Manchester City. He was marginally more involved this time, with 49 touches in 75 minutes, capitalising on an error to set up Isco in a 2-1 loss before being benched for the second-leg defeat by the same margin in Manchester.

His minutes across all phases of the competition have progressively increased. Impressively, Vinicius Jr has played more minutes in the knockout stages (3,187 – more than any player since his debut) than in the group/league phase (2,867).

In terms of appearances, 37 of his 78 Champions League games have been knockout fixtures. That amounts to 47 per cent, the same as Lionel Messi and marginally higher than Cristiano Ronaldo (46 per cent). His premier attacking contemporaries, Kylian Mbappe (37 of 95 games, 39 per cent) and Erling Haaland (18 of 56, 32 per cent), are some distance behind.

There is an argument that this is a team statistic rather than a player one, but they go hand in hand. Recurrent exposure to the spotlight has allowed Vinicius Jr to understand what he is up against and develop a track record of thriving in high-pressure moments.

Since 2018-19, no player has recorded more goal contributions in the knockout stages (26) than Vinicius Jr. His 14 goals rank only behind Mbappe (18), Benzema (17) and Haaland (16). The increased attention he receives, combined with the decisiveness in big moments that Ancelotti highlighted, has seen him record 12 assists in this period, the highest among all players.

That is just three short of the Champions League record held by Ronaldo, who played over double the number of games (85). Only four other players – Ryan Giggs, Dani Alves, Xavi and Andres Iniesta (all on 13) – have managed more assists than Vinicius Jr and they have all played at least 12 more matches.

Raw minutes aside, Madrid’s style in knockout games contributes to Vinicius Jr’s proficiency in those matches.

The table below compares the team’s numbers in the group/league phase and the knockouts in Champions League games Vinicius Jr has featured in. Madrid record drops in possession percentage, average passes per possession and field tilt (share of touches in the attacking third, an indicator of territorial dominance), along with an increase in long-ball share.

Vinicius Jr individually has fewer passes and shots in the knockout rounds but is marginally more accurate, wins more fouls and contributes to a higher share of Madrid’s goals (26 of 62 team goals) than in the group/league phase (31 of 97).

(Stats per 90 unless otherwise specified)

Playing at pace against scattered defences is where Vinicius Jr’s abilities come furthest to the fore and is a major reason for his numbers in the knockout phases.

This example from the 2023-24 quarterfinals against Manchester City sees Madrid move from goalkeeper Andriy Lunin to Vinicius Jr sending Rodrygo through on goal in seconds. It is the perfect illustration of team style and player quality combining to provide the desired result.

Vinicius Jr poses a threat in the half spaces when he can link up with a teammate and run in behind, as he does below to assist Benzema against Chelsea in the 2021-22 quarterfinals.

He assisted from a cross to the back post for Fede Valverde to volley home against Manchester City in the 2023-24 quarterfinals, too.

That variety extends to his goals. Against Leipzig in the 2023-24 round of 16, he arced his run on the fly to meet and convert a Jude Bellingham through ball.

Against Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals that season, he showed great presence of mind to drag Kim Min-jae out of position before running in behind to meet a through ball and score.

City have been on the receiving end of two memorable Vinicius Jr knockout goals. There was this iconic dummy, sprint and calm finish in the 2021-22 semifinals, which was followed by an instinctive back-post winner in the final against Liverpool.

🇧🇷 Great goal by Vinícius Júnior in the semis against Man City…#UCL pic.twitter.com/H9yvqPFIZw

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 9, 2023

When Madrid and City met in the semifinals again the following season, Vinicius Jr thumped a shot home from outside the box.

Unstoppable, @vinijr 💥#UCL pic.twitter.com/K22tBvzbwL

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 12, 2023

Madrid would welcome a follow-up to those efforts tonight. With Bellingham, Mbappe and Rodrygo all missing due to injury, they need Vinicius Jr at his decisive best.