Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could split the crucial Sun Belt swing states, according to a trio of new polls that show Harris ahead in North Carolina and Trump leading in Georgia and Arizona—as the race remains incredibly tight less than three weeks before Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the Cobb Energy Performing … [+] Arts Centre on October 15, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Pennsylvania: Harris holds a 50%-47% advantage (closer to four points when not rounded up) in a Saturday pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls and also has the same lead in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, though Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll gives Trump a one-point advantage, 46% to 45%, and the Thursday Emerson poll also found him up one point, 49% to 48%. Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, a change from the Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll—though Harris is still up 0.6 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points, 48% to 46%, in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll. Harris is up 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point, 48% to 47%, in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Big Number

1.5. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.4 points.

Key Background

Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

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