汪濤:內地進一步放鬆貨幣政策 料年底十年期國債收益率降至約2%或以下 (13:31) – 20240927 – 即時財經新聞

汪濤指出,此次會議似乎比往年的第三季度政治局會議提前了一個月。會議呼籲政府「正視困難」,「主動作為」,努力完成全年經濟社會發展目標任務。會議首次將「促進房地產市場止跌回穩」作為目標,且措辭表明政府更清楚地認識到需要推出協調性更強、果斷有效的政策寬鬆措施。其含義尚不清楚,可能會在未來幾天揭曉。

在房地產持續下行、整體經濟表現疲軟的情況下,瑞銀在8月下調 GDP 預測時,已預計政策支持力度將逐步加碼。上周美聯儲降息可能為貨幣寬鬆提供了更多空間。

政治局會議及其明確的政策基調,包括「逆週期財政政策」的必要性,提高了市場對實質性財政刺激的預期,而今年和最新的公告均未出台此類政策。瑞銀估計2024年上半年整體財政緊縮幅度約佔GDP的0.4%,而3月人大會議隱含的年度財政擴張為0.8至1%。

地方政府削減了一般支出,在財政收入減少、嚴控地方政府融資平台債務的情況下可能增加了拖欠企業的款項,並加強稅款徵收,這都不利於經濟。路透社昨日報道,中國可能很快增發2萬億元中央政府債券,用於支持消費,緩解地方政府財政困難。若這屬實,2萬億元( 佔2023年GDP的1.6%)被用於減少地方政府欠款以及提高支出和消費,這將有助於在今年餘下時間和2025年初穩定經濟增長。當前環境下,為企業減稅可能效果不大。我們需研判未來幾天可能公佈的實際財政支援的規模和構成,以評估我們對未來幾個季度的經濟增長預測。

由於會議首次提出穩定房地產市場,並列出該行業的一些關鍵問題,包括對商品房建設要嚴控增量,市場對出台更多政策措施的預期有所上升。瑞銀房地產團隊認為具體執行情況將是關鍵,該行也未確信去庫存專案或融資即將發生重大調整,或是對開發商的信貸支持即將大幅加強。會議還表示要出台更多結構性政策和改革(三中全會有提及),包括促進就業、加大對中低收入家庭的支持、推動民營經濟發展以及擴大對外國投資者的開放力度。隨著美聯儲開始降息且美元走軟,瑞銀認為中國政府能進一步放鬆貨幣政策,並預計到2024年底中國十年期國債收益率將降至約2%或更低。

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半日沽空金額增58% 盈富沽空減35%

恒指半日升697點 升穿20000點 成交增1倍至2442億 北水轉流出

大摩升金沙中國評級至增持 目標價上調至20.5元

A股半日大漲 滬指升2.14% 創板指飈9% 兩市成交額逾9500億人幣

上交所交易異常 資金轉炒深圳股票

香港寬頻據報為明年到期55億銀團貸款尋求再融資

陳茂波:國安法確保港經濟發展環境 獲商界普遍認同

港元拆息全線向上 1個月HIBOR連升6日 港元升值見7周最強

Arm擬收購英特爾產品部門 但遭拒

花旗指定分行國慶黃金周增設額外營業時間

上交所:調查今早競價交易出現成交確認緩慢情況

高盛:美國大選後 買入中國股票將成關鍵交易

離岸人民幣升值穿7算 見16個月最強 據報中資大行限制人民幣進一步升值



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