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Eli Lilly (LLY) is selling far more of two drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, than it did a year ago. The price the company collects in the U.S., however, is falling. For anyone who owns the stock, the depth of that decline is not settled. This leaves two things to track: how fast that U.S. price is falling, and how much of Lilly’s revenue comes from these two drugs.
How Fast Are Eli Lilly’s Prices Falling At Home?
Across all of its U.S. sales, Lilly’s net price fell 10% in the third quarter of 2026. This figure represents what the company keeps after rebates and discounts, and it excludes a favorable adjustment to its estimates for rebates and discounts. Lilly still grew because it sold more. U.S. revenue rose 34% in the quarter, driven mainly by higher volume of Zepbound and Mounjaro, management said. Milestone payments and changes to rebate estimates also lifted third-quarter revenue by about $900 million, management said.
The balance between volume and price is still an open question. During Lilly’s third-quarter call on October 29, 2026, analysts asked how pricing for its GLP-1 drugs would hold up in 2027, both inside and outside the U.S. Outside the U.S., management said it takes a disciplined approach to pricing. Comparing U.S. and overseas prices, it said its goal is a much tighter band for obesity drugs than in other drug categories.
Most Of Eli Lilly’s Revenue Comes From Two Drugs
Mounjaro and Zepbound together brought in more than $16 billion of Lilly’s $24.4 billion in third-quarter revenue worldwide. Total revenue rose 38.6% from a year earlier, and management said the two drugs supplied $6 billion of that growth.
Management also raised Lilly’s forecast for 2026 revenue to $91.5 billion at the midpoint, up from $86 billion in its August 5 release. Because these two drugs make up most of Lilly’s revenue, any lasting change in what the company is paid for them affects most of what it sells.
What Eli Lilly Has Said About 2027 Prices
Management has said it expects commercial insurance coverage in the U.S. to stay relatively stable through 2027, with most new access coming from Medicare and Medicaid. Those patients bring a lower net price per prescription, a change management called a shift in mix rather than an overall price cut. As in previous years, management expects lower net prices to be more than offset by higher volume.
Those comments provide the direction of U.S. prices, but not the size of the fall. Management has also said 2026 revenue includes about $2 billion of one-time items, mainly milestone payments and adjustments to rebate estimates across all of Lilly’s markets. That amount covers all of Lilly’s markets, not only the U.S.
