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Ameresco’s fair value price target has been revised slightly lower from $43.50 to $42.60, reflecting modestly more conservative inputs in the latest model. This tweak sits against a backdrop of mixed analyst views. Some highlight the $5.0b backlog, Q4 results and 2026 guidance, while others point to execution risks and at least one target cut to $28. As you read on, you will see how these differing narratives are taking shape and what to watch as they evolve.
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B. Riley lifted its Ameresco target to $47 from $45 after Q4 revenue of $581m and EBITDA of $70m, highlighting the $5.0b project backlog and planned 100 to 120MW of energy assets placed into service as key supports for its thesis.
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Canaccord raised its target to $50 from $44, pointing to what it calls healthy results and 2026 guidance that, at the midpoint, implies 9% revenue growth and 19% EBITDA growth, plus strong inbound interest from data centers for onsite power solutions.
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Stifel inched its target up to $38 from $37 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing better than expected Q4 results and what it views as solid 2026 guidance.
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UBS cut its Ameresco target to $28 from $40 while keeping a Neutral rating, which brings a more cautious stance on valuation compared with the higher targets from B. Riley, Canaccord and Stifel.
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We’ve flagged 1 risk for Ameresco. See which could impact your investment.
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Ameresco issued 2026 guidance calling for revenue of US$2.0b to US$2.2b and operating income of US$161 million to US$189 million. The company also flagged an expected first-quarter EPS loss of about US$0.30, with about 60% of 2026 revenue anticipated in the second half of the year.
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The company signed a Memorandum of Understanding with NANO Nuclear Energy to explore pairing modular micro reactors with Ameresco’s EPC capabilities for potential deployment on federal and commercial sites.
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Ameresco completed an Energy Savings Performance Contract valued at over US$30 million with Velarium Energy for U.S. Army family housing at Fort Polk, Louisiana. The project targets a 30% cut in annual electricity use and more than US$2.6 million in projected yearly utility and operating cost savings.
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Several clean energy and public sector projects were reported, including the Coventry Landfill Solar project in Rhode Island, an RNG facility at the Upper Rock Island County Landfill in Illinois, and efficiency and solar installations in Virginia and Ohio.
