Welcome to week 36 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where the subscribers are coming under serious pressure.

From what looked like an unassailable position two weeks ago, 18 points clear, the subscribers’ lead has been cut to just five points, with six-year-old Wilfred snapping at their heels.

There is even a much-maligned Athletic writer threatening to turn it into a three-horse race after belatedly finding form in the run-in.

Each week since the season began in August, four of us — Wilfred, a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.

We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. We’re also awarding a bonus point for any “unique” correct prediction of a result, so last weekend, for example, my wild prediction of a 3-2 victory for Manchester United over Liverpool earned me an extra point, as did backing out-of-form Newcastle United to beat in-form Brighton & Hove Albion.

After a miserable few months in which my title hopes seemed to evaporate, it was my second successive 10-point weekend. It would have been better still but for Newcastle United’s third goal against Brighton, which arrived in the sixth minute of stoppage time, and Burnley’s consolation goal against Leeds United at Elland Road. Another two four-pointers would have been useful.

It’s a game of fine margins — and last week’s guest subscriber, Liverpool fan Adam from London, was the latest to discover that.

All of Adam’s predictions were perfectly logical — well, perhaps backing relegated Burnley to get a draw at Leeds was a little surprising — but he ended up with just two points. Brentford’s late third goal against West Ham cost him and the subscribers a precious four-pointer.

That, combined with Wilfred’s six points (including a correct scoreline for Wolves 1-1 Sunderland), means the subscribers’ lead is down to just five with three matchweeks remaining.

So it’s over to this week’s guest subscriber, Jack, a 45-year-old Aston Villa fan from Stockport, to try to pick up enough points to keep Wilfred at bay.

Our subscriber’s match of the week

West Ham vs Arsenal, Sunday, 4.30pm UK/11.30am ET

Jack says: “The game between the side everyone would want to be relegated if Spurs weren’t down there and the side that have done the unthinkable and made people root for Man City. If West Ham can pinch one early, it could get really tense. I fancy a score draw.”

West Ham 1-1 Arsenal

Oli says: “A 2-2 draw at West Ham late in the 2022-23 season was a big blow to Arsenal’s title ambitions — and any stumble here could again cost them dear, despite Manchester City’s draw at Everton on Monday. But three years on, Arsenal will travel to Stratford with the assurance that has been heightened in the past week by extending their lead at the top of the Premier League and reaching the Champions League final.

“That doesn’t mean a slip-up is impossible, particularly against a West Ham team fighting for their lives, but I feel the most underestimated aspect of this Arsenal side is their resilience. A lack of creativity has threatened them at times in recent months, but their mental fortitude has not been — should not have been — in question.

West Ham 0-2 Arsenal

Oli’s other predictions

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Played six, won none, drawn none, lost six, scored one, conceded 14. Chelsea’s Premier League record since mid-March really is something to behold. A part of me thinks this is the kind of game some of their players, like Enzo Fernandez, might relish, or wonders whether an FA Cup final on the horizon might spark others into life. There has to be a chance of that — particularly against a Liverpool team in their own state of drift — but the greater likelihood is that Chelsea’s malaise lingers.

Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

Fulham vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth have gone 15 games unbeaten in the Premier League, which is a remarkable feat. The funny thing is that among those 15 unbeaten games, many of the draws have come against opponents who have allowed them the greater share of possession (58 per cent against West Ham, 62 per cent against Sunderland, 62 per cent against Burnley, 55 per cent against Manchester United, 60 per cent against Leeds).

By contrast, their seven wins over that period have been achieved with an average of 44.6 per cent possession. Fulham’s setup might be the type that cedes possession but restricts Bournemouth on the counter-attack. And having said that, I’m still going for an away win.

Fulham 1-2 Bournemouth

Sunderland vs Manchester United

We were discussing the best signings of the Premier League season the other day. A Manchester United-supporting friend suggested all of their major additions last summer — Senne Lammens, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko — had made a positive impact. I would agree with that. But no club got more bang for their buck than Sunderland: Robin Roefs (£11.5million), Nordi Mukiele (£12m), Noah Sadiki (£17.5m), Omar Alderete (£14m), Reinildo (free transfer), Granit Xhaka (£17.3m), Enzo Le Fee (£19.8m after arriving on loan last season), Brian Brobbey (£21.3m).

They spent a lot of money for a newly-promoted club, but the impact, across the board, has been so impressive. Mukiele and Xhaka would be among my leading suggestions for best signing of the season. Not that these kind words are reflected in my prediction for Saturday.

Sunderland 1-2 Manchester United

Brighton vs Wolves

Despite last weekend’s defeat at Newcastle, no team has taken more Premier League points since mid-February than Brighton (level with Arsenal and Manchester United with 19 points from their last nine games). It has put them in a great position to qualify for Europe but, with tricky games against Leeds and Manchester United to follow, this one feels like a must-win.

Wolves rallied impressively in their first few months under Rob Edwards, from what was already an impossible position, but that air of positivity has evaporated in recent weeks. It looks like the right game at the right time for Brighton.

Brighton 3-0 Wolves

Manchester City vs Brentford

Despite Monday’s setback at Everton, there remains a widespread expectation that Manchester City will simply keep winning. But none of their remaining games looks straightforward: Brentford at home, Crystal Palace at home, the FA Cup final against Chelsea, Bournemouth away, Aston Villa at home.

Brentford, pushing for European qualification, can make life awkward for any opponent. In fact, City’s Premier League strike rate against Brentford (1.4 goals per game) is their lowest against any opponent they have faced under Pep Guardiola, so yes, this could be very awkward. I’m going for a tense victory secured by a late third goal.

Manchester City 3-1 Brentford

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

In the circumstances, after last night’s heavy 4-0 defeat away to Aston Villa in the Europa League semi-final, Forest coach Vitor Pereira would be entitled to ring the changes again. Either way, this fixture might fall nicely for Newcastle as they look to end a difficult season on a more upbeat note.

Nottingham Forest 1-2 Newcastle

Crystal Palace vs Everton

I was mildly shocked to read this week that Crystal Palace have only beaten Everton once in their last 22 league meetings. It’s the record you might expect a team to have against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, but not against the Everton of the past 11 years. (Funnily enough, Palace’s record against Manchester City over that period is far more impressive.)

But recent history isn’t why I’m backing Everton to win on Sunday. It’s a simple case of fancying David Moyes’s team to keep pushing against a Palace side whose focus has been almost entirely on the Conference League for the past few weeks.

Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton

Burnley vs Aston Villa

I was going to go for a draw on the basis that Villa’s players might be emotionally drained after making the Europa League final with victory over Forest on Thursday night. But against a Burnley team who have already been relegated, Villa will be on a high and summon energy from somewhere — possibly from the bench — to get the win that would all but guarantee a place in next season’s Champions League.

Burnley 1-2 Aston Villa

Tottenham vs Leeds

I said a few weeks ago that Tottenham were in danger of going down without a fight. Contrary to his billing as an idealist, fight is the one thing Roberto De Zerbi has instilled in them immediately. They are playing with a totally different attitude, a team no longer drifting aimlessly towards relegation. If they had performed all season with just a fraction of the intensity and desire Leeds have shown, they would not have been in this position in the first place. Unlike Leeds, they still have work to do.

Tottenham 2-1 Leeds