EUR/AUD’s extended pullback last week suggests that rebound from 1.6125 has completed at 1.6842, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6720). But as a temporary low as formed at 1.6497, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.6497 will target a retest on 1.6125 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6708 will should resume the rebound from 1.6125 through 1.6842 to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7184) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6592) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
