Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

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U.S. stock futures are trading mixed to slightly higher early Tuesday as investors juggle a flood of corporate earnings, the start of a critical Federal Reserve policy meeting, and blockbuster IPO news from AI giant Anthropic.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are leaning bullish for the opening bell. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 27?” contract currently reflects a 67% chance of a higher open. Meanwhile, the contract for the full-day resolution sits at a 60% to 62% chance of an “Up” close.

Oct 27 Polymarket Odds For S&P 500 Opening

Why That Number Matters

Traders are navigating a tug-of-war between cooling oil prices, mega-cap earnings, and incoming economic data:

  • Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures point to a cautious but mostly green open, with tech lagging slightly. Dow Jones futures lead the advance, up 0.29%. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.10%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.16%. However, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.09%.

  • Retreating Oil vs. $150 Warnings: Energy prices continued to cool following President Donald Trump‘s remarks ruling out an immediate strike on Iran. WTI crude futures (Dec 26) fell 1.03% to $100.71 a barrel, while Brent crude (Jan 27) dropped 0.99% to $109.64 a barrel. This drop provides near-term relief, though top economist Mohamed El-Erian warned that if the conflict widens, crude could surge to $150 as the world has burned through critical inventory buffers.

  • Anthropic’s IPO & AI Efficiency: AI sentiment got a massive jolt after Anthropic filed for an IPO under the ticker $ANT, revealing $16.3 billion in H1 2026 revenue. Strategists highlighted the Claude maker’s striking compute efficiency, generating $2.08 in revenue for every dollar spent on compute and infrastructure in the second quarter—challenging the broader market narrative that AI infrastructure is purely a cash-burning machine.

  • Earnings & Eco Data: Tuesday’s loaded earnings docket includes heavyweights Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO), alongside Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS), Boeing (NYSE:BA), and S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI). On the economic front, September’s durable goods orders will drop at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the S&P Case-Shiller home price index at 9:00 a.m. ET, and consumer confidence data at 10:00 a.m. ET. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also begins its two-day policy meeting today, with its rate decision due Wednesday.

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