The Premier League title race took another twist on Wednesday as Arsenal extended their lead atop the table to seven points, their path to their first Premier League trophy in two decades clearer after Manchester City surprisingly dropped points to Nottingham Forest.
City were dominant as they faced relegation-threatened Forest at home and took the lead twice, statistically well-positioned to come out of the match with a win. Though they put just six of their 21 shots on target, they generated 2.21 expected goals to Forest’s 0.97, the visitors had a response each time City took the lead. Pep Guardiola’s side first took the lead through Antoine Semenyo in the 31st minute, though Morgan Gibbs-White eventually nabbed an equalizer for Forest in the 52nd with an impressive backheel strike. Rodri restored City’s lead 10 minutes later, only for Elliott Anderson to score the game’s final goal in the 76th minute.
City took seven shots after Anderson’s equalizer made it 2-2, generating 1.19 expected goals along the way. They got close to a game-winner in the 99th minute with a close range shot from Savinho, Murillo’s goal line clearance depriving Guardiola’s group three points and ensuring Forest would take home a valuable point that keeps them out of the relegation zone on tiebreakers.
“We did everything, we could do a little better, but it is what it is,” Guardiola told the BBC following the match. “In general, there were many good things. I would like to concede fewer, but it’s not about analysing one specific action. I never point fingers at my players. We did everything, had the chances at the end and in first half. The momentum. But something always happens and we could not win.”
It was a day of contrasts in the title race, a very different scenario playing out for Arsenal at Brighton and Hove Albion. Bukayo Saka marked his 350th Arsenal appearance with a goal in the ninth minute, riding his luck as the shot took not one but two deflections off Brighton players on the way in. Otherwise, the Gunners were arguably second-best in many ways on Wednesday – they ceded the ball fully to Brighton and only took seven shots in total and generated just 0.47 expected goals, their lowest expected goals tally in Premier League play this season. Brighton had 11 shots but only mustered 0.8 expected goals in the process with the Gunners’ well-known defensive resilience on full display.
Brighton coach Fabian Hurzeler was critical of the tactics deployed by his Arsenal counterpart Mikel Arteta in his post-match comments and singled out Gunners goalkeeper David Raya for time wasting.
“I ask one question. Did you see one time in a Premier League game a goalkeeper go down three times? No? We shouldn’t waste too many words on that,” Hurzeler said before continuing. “In the end it’s about the rules. If the Premier League, the referee, allows everything then it’s difficult. [Arsenal] make their own rules, no matter how they are playing. I will never be that kind of manager who tries to win in that way. I want to develop players, players that keep improving and play football on the pitch. In the end every team will manage and waste time, but there has to be a limit and the limit has to be set by the Premier League, by the referees. At the moment they just can do what they want. If I ask everyone now here in the room ‘did you really enjoy this football game?’, I am sure maybe one raises his arm because he’s a big Arsenal fan. Beside that, no chance.”
Premier League table
| Position | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 59 | 22 | +37 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 59 | 27 | +32 |
Remaining fixtures in the Premier League title race
Arsenal
- March 14: Everton (h)
- April 11: Bournemouth (h)
- April 19: Manchester City (a)
- April 25: Newcastle United (h)
- May 2: Fulham (h)
- May 9: West Ham United (a)
- May 17: Burnley (h)
- May 24: Crystal Palace (a)
Manchester City
- March 14: West Ham United (a)
- April 12: Chelsea (a)
- April 19: Arsenal (h)
- April 26: Burnley (a)
- May 2: Everton (a)
- May 9: Brentford (h)
- May 17: Bournemouth (a)
- May 24: Aston Villa (h)
- TBD: Crystal Palace (h)
Where does the Premier League title race go from here?
Arsenal’s seven-point lead will be hard to beat but City have two things to hang their title hopes on – they have a game in hand against Crystal Palace, who have been in middling form this season, and still have to host the Gunners. Should City win both of those games, their seven-point deficit will slim down to just one point but even in that scenario, they would still need some help while keeping pace with their rivals along the way.
Both teams have favorable schedules to close out the season and will mostly be matched up against midtable teams or those in the relegation battle, the latter group of matches perhaps more intriguing. They each have matches against Burnley and West Ham United left on the calendar, two teams that are currently stuck in the drop zone, West Ham perhaps more likely to do so – they are level on points with Forrest as things stand and have just two losses in their last seven in the league.
