The UEFA Women’s Champions League semifinals get underway Saturday, as the last four teams in the mix battle to get to the final in Oslo on May 23.

It’s defending champions Arsenal vs. eight-time winners OL Lyonnes and last year’s finalists Barcelona vs. German giants Bayern Munich. We’ve seen these matchups already before this season but, now stakes are even higher, how will these games play out across the two legs?

Arsenal vs. OL Lyonnes is a familiar fixture over the past year, what is different for the teams this time?

Since these sides met in last season’s semifinal (a 5-3 win on aggregate for Arsenal), plenty has changed behind the scenes, yet much remains the same. Both squads are largely intact compared to the injuries that were plaguing them last season, and when they crossed paths in the first game of the league phase (a 2-1 win for Lyonnes), their tactical setups still echoed last year’s approach.

Twelve months ago, Arsenal overturned a 2-1 first-leg defeat thanks to a commanding 4-1 performance in the second leg. It was a pattern they had followed in the quarterfinal against Real Madrid, suggesting the team was growing comfortable when faced with adversity. This time, however, the underdog narrative feels less convincing.

Arsenal’s emphatic playoff win over OH Leuven (7-1 on aggregate) and composed 3-2 victory against local rivals Chelsea over two legs — arguably their toughest test so far — paint the picture of a side with greater control and expectation. That expectation is the key difference.

As reigning champions, Arsenal are no longer chasing; they are the target. Every opponent are measuring themselves against them, and that shift in narrative fundamentally alters the pressure on the London side.

For Lyonnes, there has also been evolution. Since Jonatan Giráldez’s arrival in September, the tactical structure has sharpened. While organized opponents have exposed occasional vulnerabilities, their attacking power — arguably the strongest in the competition — remains as ruthless as ever.

Despite their eight titles, Lyonnes have not lifted the trophy since 2022. Recent seasons have reflected a side caught between legacy and transition: determined to reassert themselves as Europe’s dominant force, yet sometimes struggling to keep pace with the competition’s rising standard. This semifinal, then, carries significant weight. Lyonnes are driven to prove their era of dominance is not over, while Arsenal are intent on showing they are not one-hit wonders. — Emily Keogh

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Krieger: Arsenal can beat OL Lyonnes in UWCL without Williamson

Ali Krieger gives her prediction for the first leg of the UEFA Women’s Champions League semifinal between Arsenal and OL Lyonnes.

Arsenal are defending champions, but does that matter?

Arsenal’s performance in their quarterfinal win over Chelsea was indicative of a team that know what it takes to grind out tight European ties. They took their chances, were defensively sound, had the balance of luck predominantly on their side, and had a great goalkeeper to boot.

Up front, they had Alessia Russo running the show, but their win was down to their midfield: the incredible ability of Mariana Caldentey and Kim Little to run matches with the help of their collective experience. Even with captain and key defender Leah Williamson absent, Arsenal never looked flustered and showed a mentality like the one which guided them to the UWCL title last year. Having that experience to your name counts for an awful lot at this point of the competition.

While form and logic suggest Lyonnes and Barcelona are better teams overall, Arsenal’s status as reigning champions offers them an emotional buffer to draw on if needed — that’s priceless and is one of sport’s great unquantifiable assets.

Arsenal will likely have to beat the best two teams in the competition if they are to retain their title, but they’ve shocked Europe once and know how to do it again. — Tom Hamilton

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Will Bayern learn their lesson from Barcelona’s 7-1 demolition?

Lianne Sanderson and Ali Krieger preview Bayern vs. Barcelona in the Women’s Champions League semifinals.

Not much, funnily enough, which tells you a bit about the quality in Barça’s team. They have coped well for large spells of the campaign without some of their best players, dispelling, for now, concerns that having a small squad could scupper their season.

Patri’s absence between October and January was well covered by Laia Aleixandri, while the loss of Bonmatí — who is closing in on a return from a broken leg — in December has given wings to young midfielders like Clara Serrajordi and Vicky López. Of course, the timing of Guijarro and Bonmatí’s injuries has been relatively favorable because, a few fixtures aside, all of Barça’s big games start now. The key is having them fit and ready for the semifinal and, potentially, the final of the Champions League.

Patri, who picked up a small knock with Spain recently, should be at her best; Bonmatí may initially be used in a backup role as she returns in the coming weeks, although she’s unlikely to accept that without a fight. After all, she didn’t let viral meningitis keep her out of the UEFA Women’s European Championships last summer.

But even if one or the other is missing, Barça won’t be fazed. They will simply roll out a team that still includes, among others, Alexia Putellas, Caroline Graham Hansen and Ewa Pajor. — Sam Marsden

What, if anything, can Bayern Munich do to stop Barcelona?

Barcelona’s last meeting with Bayern, a 7-0 victory at the start of this season’s league phase in October, served as a stark reminder of their quality. Despite falling short in last season’s final, they appear revitalized and as formidable as ever. Indeed, they remain the benchmark in this competition. But they are not untouchable, as Arsenal demonstrated last season.

That final win in Lisbon was a blend of belief and tactical precision; dropping Caitlin Foord into midfield created overloads which disrupted Barcelona’s rhythm, while Stina Blackstenius capitalized on the one big moment that the Gunners needed her to. It was a performance built on discipline and execution.

For Bayern to replicate that kind of display will require near perfection. There is always little margin for error against Barcelona and, with a relatively inexperienced manager in Jose Barcala and limited time to implement his ideas, the scale of the challenge is undeniable. Defensive lapses — something Bayern have shown at times in this campaign — will be punished, and their attack must be clinical, despite a lack of consistency this season.

Still, they possess the capacity to cause any team problems. Their best shot at keeping Barcelona at bay is to minimize the damage in the first leg, sit back and defend, then hit them on the counter attack. There is no use trying to play Barcelona at their own possession-heavy game, so as long as they are still in it ahead of the second leg they could push the three-time winners to their limits. — Keogh

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Graham Hansen: Barcelona is focused on winning the UWCL

Caroline Graham Hansen on Barcelona’s UWCL semifinal clash against Bayern Munich and the team’s focus in the competition.

Predictions, please …

Keogh: I think it will be a repeat of 2023 final in Bilbao between OL Lyonnes and Barcelona this time around in Oslo. It is tough to call the tie between OL Lyonnes and Arsenal, but with five games in the WSL still to play and several injuries to deal with, Arsenal may not have enough across two legs. Lyonnes’ desire feels too great, plus Giraldez will force Arsenal to be at their very best to get anything from the game.

Meanwhile, as much as I love an underdog story, I don’t think Bayern have enough to defeat the Barcelona.

Hamilton: I’ve long backed OL Lyonnes to end up winning this whole tournament, but I think we could end up having an Arsenal-Barcelona final. Lyonnes have had matches where they’ve enjoyed almost complete dominance, but they’ve been wasteful in front of goal. Arsenal have been ruthless, and, as I said above, they have recency bias on their side.

I think their tie with Lyonnes will be incredibly tight, and it’s as close to 50-50 as you can find at this stage, but I just fancy Arsenal to get through. On the other side of the draw, Barcelona walloped Bayern Munich 7-1 back in round one of the competition, but it’s going to be far closer this time around. Bayern have Pernille Harder in wonderful form, and they’ll hope to have the impressive Klara Bühl back, but Barca are clear favourites for that tie.

Marsden: Barça won’t wallop Bayern like they did in the group stage — or will they?! — but they will have too much for them over two legs. And if they go into the return game needing a result, a crowd of over 60,000 at Spotify Camp Nou should be enough to get them over the line once again.

As for the other semifinal, it’s a coin flip. Tom is right, there have been signs that maybe Lyonnes have some weaknesses we didn’t expect, but I think the depth of quality they have in the squad will allow coach Giráldez to book a final against his old team.