Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
Many will be looking at Brighton’s price here of 17/20 with Sky Bet and get tempted in. Not me.
This remains a type of tactical match-up where taking on the Seagulls is a profitable long-term strategy. Brighton, who are on a run of just one win in 10 Premier League games, can be brilliant in transition and lethal when teams engage them high but when the opponent drops into a compact mid-to-low block, that fluency can drain away.
Under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have won only four of their last 18 games where the opposition play over 15 per cent of all their passes long. Everton under David Moyes will tick that tactical box.
And the Toffees also carry more threat on the break than they’re often given credit for, especially from wide areas.
When matches become scrappy, Everton thrive, as shown in their win at Aston Villa. I like the away win at 3/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Winning a Premier League title is less about ability at this stage and more about emotional management and Arsenal are beginning to look like a team thinking about the consequences rather than the process.
This fixture falls at an awkward moment for this Arsenal team as Elland Road will poke at their insecurities in an environment full of tempo and aggression. If Arsenal were playing with freedom, you’d back them to weather the storm and be trustworthy at 8/15 with Sky Bet to win this game. Right now, I’m not so sure.
The double chance on Leeds looks a really tempting angle at 6/4 with Sky Bet, covering both the win and the draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Wolves vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
There’s a feeling the market has slightly lost its balance when assessing Bournemouth in this spot. Yes, the raw numbers jump off the page, 4.5 goals per away game this season is eye-catching, but context is everything.
Those matches have often been played on Bournemouth’s terms with open games, stretched structures and opponents happy to trade punches. This trip to Molineux looks a very different test.
Wolves have quietly become one of the league’s best sides at dictating how games are played. Their defensive process over recent weeks has been excellent and goalmouth action has tended to dry up.
They force opponents into low-quality chances and squeeze games into tight margins. That’s exactly the kind of environment Bournemouth struggle to turn into shootouts. This looks a great opportunity to back a Wolves game to go under 2.5 goals at an odds-against price of 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Chelsea vs West Ham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There’s a card angle here that feels like it’s slipped through the pricing cracks. This London derby has plenty of needle baked into it anyway, but one specific match-up jumps off the page: Marc Cucurella vs Jarrod Bowen.
Bowen is one of the most effective foul-winners in the Premier League when isolated one-on-one. He draws contact cleverly, carries the ball aggressively and forces defenders into recovery challenges. The data backs it up. Bowen has already drawn 10 cards from opponents this season, more than any other player in the league.
Marc Cucurella is 100/30 with Sky Bet to be carded
Now drop Cucurella into that scenario. He’s front-footed, emotional and likes to engage early. He doesn’t shy away from contact and is more than willing to stop an attack if he feels exposed – as showcased by back-to-back bookings in his last two starts at home.
Cucurella to be carded at 100/30 with Sky Bet feels big when you layer in Bowen’s track record of forcing bookings and the likelihood of repeated defensive duels down Chelsea’s left.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Marc Cucurella to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Saturday 31st January 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Liverpool vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
With Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley both unavailable, Arne Slot could be forced into a workaround at right-back and Wataru Endo is the obvious emergency option after filling in there in midweek. That positional tweak completely changes how his card price should be viewed.
Endo is aggressive, front-footed and far more comfortable stepping into duels than jockeying wide in space. Drop him into a full-back role and you’re asking him to defend large areas against pace and direct running. And Newcastle are one of the worst opponents you can face when learning on the job out wide.
If Endo does start at right-back, he’ll be dealing with Anthony Gordon, potentially supported by Lewis Hall, which is a nightmare match-up profile. Gordon drives straight at defenders and invites contact. The numbers underline that threat as six different opponents have been carded against Gordon in the Premier League this season. Endo’s price of 5/2 with Sky Bet to be carded, if he starts as full-back, is a real runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Wataru Endo to be carded (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
This is one of those prices that makes you stop, wash your face with cold water and check you’re reading it correctly.
Aston Villa to win at 21/20 with Sky Bet feels very generous considering what this team have been telling us for months.
Since going winless in their opening five Premier League games, Villa have been nothing short of elite. They’ve taken 43 points from 18 matches, title-challenger output no doubt and no side in the division have collected more points over that period. That’s not a short hot streak either. It’s a sample of results to respect. It’s sustained excellence.
Brentford, meanwhile, remain a side you want to oppose on their travels. Only bottom club Wolves have suffered more away defeats in the Premier League this season (8). Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aston Villa to win (21/20 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There is no better attacker of a set-piece in world football than Harry Maguire. And in a Premier League season where dead-ball situations are being mined relentlessly for goals, Maguire is going to get his feed soon enough.
Harry Maguire is 7/1 to score vs Fulham
Back in the Manchester United starting XI, Maguire is playing with an authority that has shone brightly in the last two performances. That confidence can translate to when he ventures forward. Maguire’s old-school dominance remains a potent betting weapon and the 7/1 with Sky Bet for him to score is worth jumping on.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Harry Maguire to score (7/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
There’s a strong whiff of needle about this one. There’s lingering animosity in the air after the summer legal battles which ended in Forest replacing Palace in the Europa League and when you layer in the relegation context, emotions are likely to be running hot. That’s usually when the card markets come alive.
One match-up in particular looks primed to deliver.
Neco Williams is expected to lock horns with Ismaila Sarr, and that’s a tough afternoon for any full-back. Sarr is relentless in one-vs-one situations, drives straight at defenders and forces decisions at pace. The data is damning from a defensive perspective as Sarr has drawn 21 cards from opponents since the start of last season, with only Bruno Guimaraes responsible for more in the Premier League.
Williams looks a bet material at 100/30 with Sky Bet to be carded in an edgy game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Neco Williams to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There’s no escaping the strange relationship between these two. Spurs have won seven of the last 12 meetings and Pep Guardiola has lost more Premier League games against Tottenham (8) than any other opponent. On paper, that history screams Tottenham.
And when you see Spurs at 100/30 with Sky Bet, the temptation is obvious. But Spurs at home remain impossible to trust.
Instead of fighting the uncertainty, the smarter route is to isolate a player who can still profit from Spurs doing some things right and that’s where Dominic Solanke to score at 11/4 with Sky Bet comes to the party.
He’s become something of a forgotten man, but Solanke is built to score in the Premier League. Goals in back-to-back games is a reminder of his talents.
There’s also a bigger-picture motivation edge at play. With England’s forward depth in focus, Solanke knows he’s fighting to be a potential Harry Kane understudy this summer for England at the World Cup.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Dominic Solanke is 11/4 to score vs Man City
Sunderland vs Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Sunderland remain the only Premier League team unbeaten at home this season. That is wild.
But trends do snap and, in betting, timing when to step in to profit from such a run ending is a key weapon to use when trying to profit in this game. It’s 19/5 with Sky Bet to end here – a price on a Burnley win that is too big to pass up.
The absence of Granit Xhaka is pivotal. We saw exactly how fragile Sunderland can be without their midfield reference point in their worst performance of the season away at West Ham. Without Xhaka’s control, leadership and ability to dictate tempo, Sunderland lost structure, lost composure and were far too easy to play through.
Burnley need wins now. So their approach will be positive and the market is dangling a very juicy carrot towards us regarding their win prospects.
