聯想遭標普下調2025/26財年EBITDA利潤率預測至6.4% (16:22) – 20240530 – 即時財經新聞

該報告提及,聯想擁有遍布全球的35家工廠,惟大部分生產集中在中國,尤其個人電腦(PC),而美國或歐洲監管機構在PC進口或晶片採購的新關稅或出口限制,可能大幅增加聯想的資本支出或運營支出。戴爾(DELL)與惠普(HP)等其他電腦製造商正面臨類似風險。

標普估計,若運營支出增加約3億美元(約23.4億港元)或智能設備業務集團(IDG)營業利潤率下降60個基點,並每年發生,將觸發該行降級條件,即淨債務佔EBITDA(除息稅、折舊及攤銷前盈利)比率達到1倍。該行認為,聯想日前提出發行20億美元(約156億港元)可轉換債(CB)和新認股權證的影響,將取決於其用途。該公司披露在中東的最大投資或是約3億美元或以下,並需一年以上時間完成。假設成功發行,而且剩餘資金用於再融資,估計未來兩年經調整後的淨債務佔EBITDA比率將略低於1倍。發行3年後,如果CB和認股權證被行使,槓桿比率或會大幅下降。由於可轉換債很可能以價內(In-the-money)發行,轉換可能性也更高。

該報告又表示,美國對中國PC進口的關稅或限制目前不是該行作基準情况,因美國進口了大量在中國製造的PC,若提高關稅將影響本地需求。去年相關進口價值370億美元,佔美國PC進口總額的30%以上;墨西哥為美國第二大PC出口國,出口額為250億美元。該行估計,美國銷售的大部分PC都是來自進口產品。

標普指聯想截至今年3月底止的第四季業績符合預期,經調整後的淨債務佔EBITDA比率為0.8倍。2025/26財年收入預測大致保持不變,增長率分別為7%和9%;當中略為下調2025財年PC收入預測,但基礎設施解決方案集團(ISG)的較高收入有助抵消。該行續稱,ISG收入或在2024財年8.5%的下跌後有更強勁反彈,但或因投資AI服務器而仍然虧損。

另外,標普將2025/26財年EBITDA利潤率預測由6.9%下調至6.4%,反映高毛利的IDG收入佔比減少,以及新AI產品以致的較高銷售和營銷成本。該EBITDA預測意味著2025/26財年的淨淨債務佔EBITDA比率將為0.9倍。

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