Oil prices accelerated higher today, with WTI decisively breaking above 60 level as markets rebuilt geopolitical risk premium. Traders are factoring in a cluster of geopolitical risks, including potential exclusion of Iranian exports, renewed supply uncertainty around Venezuela, ongoing talks surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, and broader strategic tensions linked to Greenland.
In particular, Iran is central to the current repricing. As one of the top producers within OPEC, Iran has been hit by its largest anti-government protests in years. Economists estimate that unrest in Iran has already added roughly USD 3–4 per barrel in geopolitical risk premium.
Additionally, the forceful government crackdown has drawn sharp warnings the US, including the threat of possible military action. The late upleg in oil prices appeared to be triggered right after President Donald Trump warned any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all trade conducted with the US, a move that risks tightening Iran’s effective export channels.
Technically, WTI is clearly in near-term upside acceleration as the rebound from 54.98 extends. It’s now targeting 161.8% projection of 54.98 to 58.96 from 55.79 at 62.21. If the move is corrective as currently seen, that 62.21 area should act as a natural cap.
However, sustained break above 62.21 would argue the rally is impulsive rather than corrective, opening the case for a broader bullish trend reversal. Such a development would mark a significant shift in market structure.
Indeed, the daily chart signals support that possibility. WTI has successfully defended key support at 55.20 (2025 low), formed bullish convergence on D MACD, and reclaimed the 55 D EMA decisively. A confirmed break above 62.21 would raise the probability that the entire decline from 78.87 (2025 high) is reversing. That would open up further rise through 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 54.98 at 64.10.
