Why Real Madrid believe – and history shows – they should never be discounted, even after Bayern loss

“Of course we’re still alive,” Real Madrid coach Alvaro Arbeloa told Spanish channel Movistar soon after his team had been beaten 2-1 by Bayern Munich in Tuesday’s Champions League quarter-final first leg.

Arbeloa’s side had been 2-0 behind early in the first half at the Bernabeu, with really poor defending being punished by fine finishes from Bayern’s Luis Diaz and Harry Kane.

Bayern could have scored more, and at times threatened to overrun a disorganised Madrid. But Kylian Mbappe’s close-range strike means his team travel to next Wednesday’s return game in Munich just a goal behind.

This is Madrid, after all, the 15-time winners of this competition, and Arbeloa leaned into that tradition to back up his belief that his team was not dead yet.

“We just need one goal to equalise the tie, and we’re capable of winning at any stadium,” he said. “0-2 would have been very difficult to turn around. You have to keep your heads, which is not easy in these situations, but we are confident we can play a great game there.”

Madrid defender Antonio Rudiger told Movistar that while his team had played themselves into a difficult situation in the tie, they still believed they could come through.

“Both goals we conceded were gifts, screw-ups by us,” Rudiger said. “But we’re still alive, with Mbappe’s goal. We still have faith, we always do.”

The chances of Madrid defending much better in the second leg are arguably not great, given the problems the team has had at the back since Xabi Alonso’s short-term spell as coach earlier this season and even predecessor Carlo Ancelotti’s reign.

Yet, even though Bayern looked the better side for most of the 90 minutes, Madrid’s galactico attackers kept creating chances to get their team back into the game.

Vinicius Junior had an off night, while Mbappe also missed several chances he would expect to score. Even as the game went into the 95th minute, Jude Bellingham and Fede Valverde were trying to make something happen around the Bayern penalty area.

Since replacing Alonso in January, Arbeloa has spoken a lot about Madrid’s history of stirring Champions League victories, where tradition and individual inspiration have so often triumphed over logic and tactical sophistication.

The rookie coach has understandably decided to stress this narrative, given his inexperience at the top level and the lack of balance in the squad.

Madrid’s problems in defence and lack of organisation could be punished next week. Holding midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni being suspended for that game after being shown a yellow card in the first leg makes it even more difficult.

Alvaro Arbeloa remains confident despite the first-leg defeat at home (Angel Martinez/Getty Images)

But when you have this much talent in your attack, Madrid have often shown before that anything is possible. Mbappe is the top scorer in this season’s competition, with 14 goals in 10 games, and should be fitter next week after recently coming back from a tricky knee problem. Vinicius could pack his shooting boots for the trip to Bavaria, while Bellingham should also be able to make a full contribution as he returns from a hamstring problem.

Or another unlikely hero might emerge. When Madrid met Bayern in the semi-finals two years ago, they were a goal behind on aggregate with time almost up in the second leg and heading out of the competition. Then backup striker Joselu, 36, came off the bench to score two goals in three minutes, Madrid qualified for the final, where they won their 15th European Cup by beating Borussia Dortmund 2-0.

There are many such stories in Madrid’s history, especially over the past decade, although it is true that most of their ‘remontada victories’ have come when they have had the second leg back at the Bernabeu, with players and supporters combining to produce a wave of energy which washed opposition teams away.

This time around, the second leg being in Germany makes such scenes less likely. Logic says Bayern’s players should have the experience, talent, and character to get the result they need.

Madrid’s Champions League magic also does not work every season — last year, a team with most of the same galacticos, and many of the same defensive issues, were outclassed 5-1 on aggregate by Arsenal in the quarter-finals.

But logic does not always seem to matter when Madrid play in the Champions League. Even relatively new arrivals at the Bernabeu quickly learn all about the club’s history in the competition, helping to bring confidence in situations that seem unlikely.

“We got the goal back, which is very important for us — it’s only half-time in the tie,” former Liverpool defender Trent Alexander Arnold told TNT on Tuesday night. “Anything can happen, especially when it’s Real Madrid in the Champions League. We have to go over there and score at least one goal, if not more, but our aim is to win this competition.”

Scoring more than once in Munich does not seem impossible for Madrid, given how the first leg went. Arbeloa’s team had 20 shots in the first leg, with Bayern goalkeeper Manuel Neuer making nine saves, including four from Mbappe and three from Vinicius.

When Arbeloa was asked about Neuer’s display at the post-game news conference, he gave another statement of his side’s collective belief that this tie was far from over.

“That shows we can do them damage,” Arbeloa replied. “We’ll learn a lot from this game. We’ve not had so much time to prepare; they are a more cohesive team, and have been together longer.”

“But whoever does not believe can stay in Madrid,” the former Liverpool defender added. “I’ve got players with a lot of character. The first thing I said in the dressing room was that we are going to win there.”

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