When Arsenal won the 2003–04 Premier League title without losing a single game, it seemed inconceivable that they would not tighten their stranglehold over the division for years to come.
Yet, it’s been more than two decades and the Gunners are yet to earn another top-flight crown. In fact, four of Mikel Arteta’s current squad were not alive to see that increasingly sepia-toned triumph.
While the club’s fanbase are at pains to avoid tempting fate, many others have widely accepted that the end of this drought will finally arrive this season. Opta’s supercomputer is confident enough to rate Arsenal’s chances at north of 97%.
There are still several matches to play and the not-so-small matter of a Manchester City side threatening to discover their best form of the season. However, some thoughts have already turned towards that long awaited coronation date.
Earliest Date Arsenal Can Win Premier League Title
Arsenal could theoretically win the Premier League title before the end of April. In the admittedly unlikely event that City lose their next three Premier League fixtures, Arteta’s side would be crowned champions by winning back-to-back games before avoiding defeat to Newcastle United on Saturday, April 25.
The current league leaders would be required to beat Bournemouth this weekend—which is by no means an easy task—while City tumble to this in-fighting iteration of Chelsea before the pair meet in a seismic tussle at the Etihad on April 19.
City haven’t lost at home to Arsenal since Santi Cazorla inspired a 2–0 victory in January 2015, with eight of the subsequent 11 clashes in Manchester ending in a local win. However, in the event that Arteta gets one over his former mentor, and City lose their midweek clash with Burnley on April 22, he could welcome Newcastle to the Emirates at the end of the month knowing that a point would be enough to clinch ultimate glory.
Arsenal’s Earliest Coronation
|
Date |
Fixture |
Necessary Outcome |
|---|---|---|
|
April 11 |
Arsenal vs. Bournemouth |
Arsenal win |
|
April 12 |
Chelsea vs. Man City |
Man City loss |
|
April 19 |
Man City vs. Arsenal |
Arsenal win |
|
April 22 |
Burnley vs. Man City |
Man City loss |
|
April 25 |
Arsenal vs. Newcastle |
Arsenal don’t lose |
Likeliest Date the Premier League Title Is Decided
Aside from the crunch game against one another, both Arsenal and Manchester City will be favorites in every remaining Premier League fixture they have. The Gunners have actually already beaten every team they are preparing to face during the run-in this season, aside from City.
While Arsenal have been made to wait more than a decade for a win at the Etihad, Arteta’s side have drawn their previous two trips to the blue half of Manchester. Should the pair share the spoils later this month and win every other fixture, the title could be decided on the penultimate weekend of the season.
If City’s game-in-hand against Crystal Palace is rearranged for Wednesday, May 13 (which is one of two likely options) all eyes will turn to the following weekend of May 17.
The Premier League have not yet announced kickoff dates and times for that stage of the campaign, so it remains to be seen whether Arsenal would even have to play. In the event that City drop points in their trip to Bournemouth that weekend, the Gunners would be champions regardless of their clash with Burnley. Yet, any positive result against the Clarets would remove any reliance upon City’s result.
Arsenal, Man City’s Remaining Premier League Fixtures
|
Arsenal |
Man City |
|---|---|
|
April 11 – Bournemouth (H) |
April 12 – Chelsea (A) |
|
April 19 – Man City (A) |
April 19 – Arsenal (H) |
|
April 25 – Newcastle (H) |
April 22 – Burnley (A) |
|
May 2 – Fulham (H) |
May 4 – Everton (A) |
|
May 10 – West Ham (A) |
May 9 – Brentford (H) |
|
May 17 – Burnley (H) |
May 17 – Bournemouth (A) |
|
May 24 – Crystal Palace (A) |
May 24 – Aston Villa (H) |
|
TBD – Crystal Palace (H) |
Can the Premier League Title Come Down to the Final Day?
This is a devilishly realistic possibility. City only need to win their game in hand at home to Crystal Palace and defeat Arsenal at the Etihad to close the gap to three points. Should Guardiola’s side match the pace-setters’ results (or even pick up six more points than their rivals) over the subsequent weeks, the two teams would enter the final day within a win of each other.
Arsenal travel to Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park at the exact same time Manchester City host Aston Villa on the last Sunday of the season. City have already won five Premier League titles on the final day of a campaign, most recently keeping Arsenal at bay in 2023–24.
