Silver
The silver market has fallen pretty significantly during the course of the week as interest rates continue to be a main driver. After all, we are in a situation where a lot of traders just don’t know what to do with the risk coming out of the Middle East as the war seemingly although much calmer than it once was, is still some distance away from having an agreement between the United States and Iran.
The $80 level is a little bit of resistance, if we were to break above there, then we could go higher, perhaps reaching towards the $90 level. Underneath, I would look at the $70 level as the floor.
Gold
The gold market has gone back and forth during the trading week, showing the area just above the $4,600 level as being important. Much like the silver market, we have seen a lot of sensitivity to the interest rate market. So therefore, I watch the US 10-year yield, the 4.30 level continues to be a very important level and therefore I think you need to try to pay close attention to that. If we are above 4.3%, typically speaking, that’s negative for the gold market.
EUR/USD
The Euro has been noisy during the week; we even tested the 1.18 level but ended a little bit negatively. Quite frankly we are close to the top of the range we have been in since this time last year, so I’m not really looking for anything major here. I think you’ve got a situation where traders are just trying to go back and forth.
That being said interest rates in the United States and Germany are higher than they should be and with that and the news coming out of the war there is a lot of distortion in the market. Regardless though it is interesting that we have been sitting in the same range for so long and now that we are closer to the top, we’re starting to see selling pressure again.
GBP/USD
The British pound ended up in a fairly tight range for the week as traders are trying to sort out whether or not the war is going to end and of course what that means for interest rates.
The 1.35 level is an area that I think being not only a large round psychologically significant figure but it is also an area where a lot of people will be watching very closely. This is a market that I think is trying to determine where to go next.
If we can break above the high of the previous week then we could go looking to the 1.3750 level. If we pull back then I’m looking at the 1.3350 level as a potential target for short sellers.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has been noisy during the week against the Mexican peso testing the 17.5 level.
This is an area that is significant support in the past as well as resistance so a lot of market memory could be here. If we can break above the 17.50 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking into the 17.8 level.
A pullback from here just means that the US dollar is likely to continue to consolidate between the 17 and the 17.5 level. The interest rate differential continues to favor Mexico but if we do get more risk destruction out there the dollar will pick up.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 rallied rather significantly yet again during the week for the fourth week in a row we have seen a massive move to the upside. Short-term pullbacks I think open up the possibility of buying on some type of bounce in order to get on the right-hand side of the V. The 26,250 level is an area that previously had been resistance, and I would anticipate it would be support if we do in fact drop from here.
Keep in mind that a lot of what the Nasdaq 100 is moving on is artificial intelligence and unfortunately headlines coming out of the Middle East.
BTC/USD
The Bitcoin market has rallied during the week, but it continues to see a little bit of pressure to the downside. This is going to be a slow grind higher as it looks like the Bitcoin market is going to try to get to the $84,000 level. That is an area that previously was a support level, and it should now be resistance.
USD/CAD
The $72,000 level continues to be important on pullbacks, and I would look at that as a potential area of buyers jumping back into this market to lift it up.
The US dollar initially fell against the Canadian dollar but found enough support at the 200-week EMA to turn things around and form a bit of hammer.
If the market were to break above the 1.37 level, then we could see the US dollar go looking to the 1.38 level. The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, and I think that will be a major driver of where we go.
