- USD/CAD edges higher but remains bearish in the long term.
- Technical oscillators show early signs of upside appetite while still in negative territory.
USD/CAD is extending its three‑day rebound, climbing back above 1.3600 as broad US dollar strength combines with persistent pressure on the Canadian dollar amid ongoing uncertainty and rising unease surrounding US-Canada trade relations.
If upside momentum continues and price closes above initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January pullback at 1.3638, along with the 20‑day simple moving average (SMA) just above at 1.3644, the pair could advance toward a retest of the monthly highs near 1.3709, followed by the 1.3750-1.3811 region, which encapsulates the “death cross” between the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs.
Despite the latest advance, also reflected in indicators showing tentative upward attempts, momentum signals remain broadly negative. The stochastics are attempting a bullish crossover between the %K and %D lines, the RSI is sloping upward toward the neutral threshold, and the MACD is edging above its red signal line while still below zero. This combination suggests that although bullish attempts are emerging, the broader technical picture remains vulnerable, especially with the pair still trading well below the long-term ascending trendline.
If the bearish pressure resumes, the pair could retreat toward 1.3575, followed by 1.3471, taken from the October lows, and then the seven-month low near 1.3420.
To sum up, downside momentum is easing, but with key resistance levels approaching and indicators still in negative territory, USDCAD’s upside may soon stall.
