Planned big changes at Sam’s Club, risks of agentic commerce, a new Walmart global security center, the China market, and details on Walmart’s cake business were just a few of The Supply Side stories published in 2025.
Following are excerpts from some of the more notable The Supply Side reports.
Sam’s Club Changes
It took 42 years for Sam’s Club to reach $90 billion in annual revenue, but CEO Chris Nicholas and his executive group plan to double the business in the next eight to 10 years — if not sooner.
During an early 2025 conference, Nicholas said the retailer plans to add 30 clubs over the next two years and remodel all 600 club locations over the next decade.
Sam’s Club Chief Financial Officer Todd Sears said membership income has grown 22% over the past two years. He said more than half of Sam’s Club members transact digitally with the retailer, and 40% of the transactions at Sam’s Club are digital.
Nicholas said e-commerce accounts for 15% of Sam’s Club sales, excluding fuel, and the retailer thinks 40% is achievable and profitable.
A controversial goal is to possibly remodel all 600 clubs to remove cash register terminals from the front-end of the store and require members to use the Scan & Go feature inside the Sam’s Club mobile app on their smartphones.
The China Focus
Walmart has been investing in China for nearly three decades and is more than halfway through a $1.2 billion investment in supply chain infrastructure through 2029. Walmart China includes 280 Walmart and 54 Sam’s Club stores and a huge online business.
Kath McLay, the previous CEO of Walmart International, spoke to investors in May about the China business. China is a big business for Walmart and also a leader in quick commerce for the rest of the enterprise.
Walmart China has been able to achieve double-digit net sales growth annually since 2021, with an e-commerce business that is roughly half of total sales.
Walmart China contributed $20.3 billion in sales in the recent fiscal year to Walmart’s topline revenue. Sam’s Club, which is part of Walmart International in China, contributed 68% of that total, up 27.7% from the prior year.
Agentic Commerce Issues
Walmart announced in late 2025 a partnership with OpenAI to allow ChatGPT users to directly shop and buy products using the chatbot app with no human interaction. This is known as agentic commerce.
While agentic commerce is a leap ahead, it is not without risks, according to McKinsey & Co. While there are safeguards in place with Visa and Mastercard models, there are concerns about who might be responsible for an unwanted order the chatbot makes for the customer.
“Agentic commerce will push payments providers to evolve in many ways,” said Marie-Claude Nadeau, senior partner and global leader of McKinsey’s payments work. “Authentication and fraud prevention will become more complex, moving from stopping bots from making transactions to enabling the right agents to transact for customers.”
Global Security
Walmart keeps tabs on threats with its Global Security Operations Center (GSOC). It also monitors cyber threats.
The center is in the basement of a building on Walmart’s new corporate campus. Walmart said GSOC is five times larger than the former emergency operations center.
Jason Jackson, vice president of the GSOC, said being proactive is key in spotting risk. The intake team scans the global environment for risks. It could be a protest in Bangladesh, an earthquake in Peru, or a bomb explosion at an international airport, Jackson said.
“A lot of our domain is physical risk, but there is also cyber, security, epidemiological issues and crime-type events that we are looking at in real time,” Jackson said. “Our team is constantly in motion 24/7, 365 days a year, because our environment constantly changes and shifts.”
Online Grocery Growth
U.S. online grocery is expected to grow at a compounded annual rate of 8.9% through 2029, more than five times faster than the 1.7% growth rate expected for in-store grocery sales, according to Brick Meets Click.
Brick Meets Click noted that with online grocery sales expected to grow 5.2 times faster than in-store sales, e-grocery will account for nearly half of the grocery market’s total dollar growth over the next five years. The firm forecasts that online grocery will contribute almost 40% of sales gains in 2025 and more than half of the gains by 2029.
“As firms, especially grocers, review our new five-year forecast it’s important to keep in mind that mass retail and Walmart (excluding Sam’s Club) now account for nearly 50% and 40% of today’s e-grocery sales, respectively, and that the top line view includes ship-to-home, a service that most grocers don’t offer,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click.
The Bakery Business
While small relative to other operations, Walmart continues to invest in its U.S. bakery business, which rings up about $3 million a week from cake decoration. The cake decorators also earn more on average than other store workers.
“We decorate on average 150,000 cakes a week across our U.S. stores, and it increases around graduation season when we sell more than 1 million cakes decorated for customers,” said Kaylee Lukis, corporate spokeswoman with Walmart.
The cake decorator job at Walmart is the highest-paying, non-management position in a supercenter. Average pay for a cake decorator at Walmart is $19.25 per hour, compared to $18.25 for all non-managerial store workers, the company said in September.
Editor’s note: The Supply Side section of Talk Business & Politics focuses on the companies, organizations, issues and individuals engaged in providing products and services to retailers. The Supply Side is managed by Talk Business & Politics, and is sponsored by HRG.
