After watching his Arsenal side stutter and stumble their way back to the Premier League summit on Saturday afternoon, Mikel Arteta warned that there would be plenty more strife to come.
“I don’t expect after 22 years of not winning [the title] that it’s going to be a path of roses and beautiful music around it,” he scoffed after a scratchy 1–0 win over Newcastle United. “It’s going to be like this and we are ready for it.”
Nobody said it would be easy, but it didn’t have to be this hard. Arsenal had ample opportunity to establish a chasm between themselves and Manchester City, only to fritter away points in the spring. Pep Guardiola’s side have enjoyed a familiar return to form over the recent sunny weeks and even returned to first place on Wednesday night.
The Gunners reclaimed that lofty position at the same time City booked a spot in the FA Cup final on Saturday. In a question between points on the board and games in hand, Opta’s supercomputer clearly favors the former in a prediction for how the title race will unfold.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title
|
Actual Position |
Team |
Current Points |
Predicted Points |
Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
73 |
81.52 |
70.85% |
|
2. |
Man City |
70 |
79.35 |
29.15% |
The supercomputer’s faith in Arsenal is unwavering. Even after City clambered above the north London outfit in midweek, Opta still gave the Gunners a considerable edge. That confidence has only been bolstered by Saturday’s three points against Newcastle.
Rather than the quality (or lack thereof) in Arsenal’s recent performances, this stance appears to come from the caliber of opponents both sides have yet to play. The Gunners are set to face two of the current bottom four, 13th-placed Crystal Palace and a Fulham side sitting 10th with a negative goal difference.
City are also scheduled to face Palace but have to travel to Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium before taking on Brentford (ninth), Bournemouth (seventh) and ending the campaign against fifth-placed Aston Villa.
As Arteta repeated ad nauseam over the week, Arsenal’s clash with Newcastle was “Game One” of a five-match shootout. While the percentage chance of title success is surprisingly wide, Opta predict City and the Gunners to be separated by just two points come the end of the campaign.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
|
Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Qualification Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3. |
Man Utd |
58 |
65.75 |
98.46% |
|
4. |
Liverpool |
58 |
63.99 |
96.92% |
|
5. |
Aston Villa |
58 |
64.27 |
97.26% |
In the eyes of the most widely revered data provider across soccer, the top-five race is done. Manchester United, Liverpool and Aston Villa are all given at least a 96% chance of finishing immediately behind Arsenal and Manchester City.
However, the Champions League qualification race is not quite wrapped up just yet.
Villa’s slide into fifth place following Saturday’s 1–0 defeat to Fulham has opened up a devilish prospect. Should Unai Emery’s side finish the campaign in that exact position—they are given a 34.5% chance of doing so—and win the Europa League which comes with Champions League qualification, then the team which sneaks into sixth place also gains entry to Europe’s premier club competition.
If the top five is secure, the race for sixth is anything but.
The Race for Sixth Place
|
Actual Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Likelihood of Finishing Sixth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6. |
Brighton |
50 |
56.41 |
44.69% |
|
7. |
Bournemouth |
49 |
54.49 |
14.41% |
|
8. |
Chelsea |
48 |
53.80 |
12.13% |
|
9. |
Brentford |
48 |
54.17 |
12.67% |
|
10. |
Fulham |
48 |
53.04 |
5.29% |
|
11. |
Everton |
47 |
52.35 |
7.72% |
|
12. |
Sunderland |
46 |
50.64 |
0.74% |
This should have been Chelsea’s spot for the taking. In fact, guaranteed Champions League qualification seemed within their grasp as recently as last month when the Blues thrashed Villa 4–1 in Birmingham. Chelsea have lost every league game since and sacked Liam Rosenior.
Brighton & Hove Albion condemned their former defender to his premature fate with a 3–0 thumping in midweek which saw the Seagulls soar all the way up to sixth. Fabian Hürzeler’s side are favorites to finish the campaign in that spot—which will guarantee at least Europa League qualification for only the second time in the club’s history—but they are only one win away from Everton in the bottom half of the table.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
|
Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15. |
Leeds |
40 |
45.68 |
1.17% |
|
16. |
Nottingham Forest |
39 |
44.02 |
1.89% |
|
17. |
West Ham |
36 |
40.16 |
38.26% |
|
18. |
Tottenham |
34 |
38.69 |
58.57% |
|
19. |
Burnley (R) |
20 |
23.48 |
100% |
|
20. |
Wolves (R) |
17 |
21.40 |
100% |
With Burnley and Wolves already condemned to the Championship while Nottingham Forest and Leeds United have almost certainly pulled clear of the division’s plughole, it is now a straight shootout between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United.
For four entire minutes on Saturday, April 26, Spurs were out of the relegation zone. João Palhinha’s winning goal against already-relegated Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux was compounded by an 88th-minute equalizer for Everton in their clash with West Ham 130 miles south at the London Stadium.
Callum Wilson had other ideas. The Hammers forward snatched victory for the capital club against Everton to ensure that his side remained two points clear of Spurs.
Not that Roberto De Zerbi was disheartened. “I believe,” he declared after earning Tottenham’s first league win of 2026. Injuries to both Dominic Solanke and a particularly serious-looking problem for Xavi Simons have some fans thinking otherwise, but the Italian remained defiant.
“When I knew better my players, I understood that we have the possibility, the chance to stay up,” he warned. “We have two points [the gap to West Ham], not 10 points.”
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