Silver didn’t just survive last Thursday’s selloff—it revealed something important. The nearly 9% plunge was a stress test, and the market’s response—holding firmly above 70—signals that the defense of 70 is more than technical noise. It may mark the point where control shifted from weak to strong hands.
The selloff could have delivered a clean positioning reset. Leveraged longs were forced out in size, with weak hands flushed out in a single session. But what followed was just as critical: strong hands stepping in quickly, absorbing supply and preventing a deeper breakdown.
Crucially, the market refused to wait for 60. That level remains the most important value zone, yet buyers chose to act early, stepping in at 70 instead. This behavior reflects a change in mindset—less patience, more urgency—as participants position ahead of tightening supply conditions and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Those structural factors are still in play. With supply deficits extending into a fifth consecutive year, Silver has a fundamental cushion underneath it. This doesn’t guarantee a rally, but it strengthens the case that the downside is increasingly supported, especially after such a sharp flush lower.
However, the upside story remains incomplete. Silver continues to face yield-driven pressure, with its non-yielding asset sensitivity limiting gains in a high-rate environment. A move toward 80 will need yield relief, likely through falling US 10 yield from the current 4.3% towards 4.2%. Until that happens, rallies—while possible—are likely to stall below key resistance, leaving 80 just out of reach for now.
Technically, for now, further rise is expected as long as 66.70 support holds. Break of 76.29 will resume the rebound from 60.97 towards 38.2% retracement of 121.83 to 60.97 at 84.21. However, break of 66.70 will likely bring another test of 60.97, or probably even a brief breach of 60 psychological level, before Silver forms a durable bottom.
