Wingstop Soars 13% on Q3 Earnings Beat Even as CEO Says He’s “Not Satisfied”

Wingstop Soars 13% on Q3 Earnings Beat Even as CEO Says He's "Not Satisfied" ©PeskyMonkey from Getty Images via Canva
Wingstop Soars 13% on Q3 Earnings Beat Even as CEO Says He’s “Not Satisfied” ©PeskyMonkey from Getty Images via Canva

Key Takeaways

  • Wingstop shares rose 13% after third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.08 beat the $1.02 analysts expected, despite a revenue miss.

  • The stock had already fallen so far that a modest beat and steady restaurant openings were enough to spark a relief rally.

  • Domestic same store sales fell 5.4%, and Wingstop now expects them to fall 6.5% to 7% in 2026, worse than its earlier 4% to 6% decline.

  • The next test is whether management’s early signs of a turnaround show up in same store sales in the fourth-quarter report.

Wingstop (WING:NASDAQ) shares are up 13% this morning after its third-quarter earnings beat estimates, even though CEO Michael Skipworth said outright that he’s “not satisfied” with the results.

That’s a lot for a stock to shrug off. Revenue missed, same store sales shrank again, and management cut its sales guidance.

What exactly happened

  • Adjusted EPS of $1.08, ahead of the $1.02 analysts expected but down from $1.09 a year ago

  • Revenue up 5.3% to $185.1 million, short of the $192.9 million consensus

  • System-wide sales up 6.0% to $1.44 billion, with 76 net new restaurants

  • Domestic same store sales down 5.4%, on top of a 5.6% drop a year earlier

  • 2026 domestic same store sales now seen falling 6.5% to 7%, against 4% to 6% before

Wingstop blamed the drop on fewer transactions as consumers keep pulling back. Skipworth didn’t sugarcoat it in the company’s earnings release:

“While we are not satisfied with our third quarter results and the improvement in sales performance is taking time, we are encouraged by the early indicators from the changes we’ve made.”

TIKR tracks 28 analysts on Wingstop. How many say “Buy”?

See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Wingstop, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Wingstop’s Analyst Ratings

The bar was on the floor

Wall Street had already priced in plenty of pain. Wingstop’s forward P/E hit a five-year low of 21x in late September, and at yesterday’s close it was 26x, a fraction of its 75x five-year average…

Wingstop (WING): forward (NTM) P/E, last 5 years (TIKR)
Wingstop (WING): forward (NTM) P/E, last 5 years (TIKR)

After today’s jump, it’s closer to 29x.

At that price, a modest beat was enough, along with guidance for 440 to 450 net new restaurants this year (14.4% to 14.7% unit growth). (The beat does come with an asterisk: a $2.0 million drop in stock compensation from forfeited awards was worth about a nickel a share after tax.)

New restaurants are carrying the load

Analysts still expect normalized EPS to climb from $4.08 in fiscal 2025 to $5.30 in fiscal 2027…

Wingstop (WING): normalized EPS, actual and consensus estimates, $ per share, fiscal 2023–2028 (TIKR)
Wingstop (WING): normalized EPS, actual and consensus estimates, $ per share, fiscal 2023–2028 (TIKR)

Unit growth of 14%-plus supports those estimates, but a weaker fourth quarter could still trim this year’s $4.39.

The risk is that new restaurants keep covering for weaker existing ones: the average domestic Wingstop’s annual sales fell to $1.85 million from $2.06 million a year ago.

My take: The rally makes sense. At under 30x forward earnings, Wingstop no longer needs a quick sales rebound to justify its price, and it’s still adding restaurants at a 14%-plus clip. Of course, Skipworth’s “early indicators” have to show up in same store sales, and the fourth-quarter report early next year is the first real chance to see them.

So what is Wingstop stock actually worth?

TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Wingstop could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.

Value Wingstop for free

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