All eyes were on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) this past week as the company’s leadership crisis quickly spiraled from a board investigation to the resignation of Jensen Huang as CEO.
Investor attention is likely to remain on the AI chip leader this coming week, and it’s not just because there are so many questions now that Huang is gone.
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Nvidia will report third-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, Nov. 17. The company’s quarterly reports are normally a marquee event on Wall Street as it’s seen as the bellwether for the AI boom. However, this report has particular importance as it will be the company’s first without Huang as CEO, and it comes shortly after the crisis that led to his resignation.
For investors, the fallout does present potential opportunity. Nvidia stock tumbled last week as the ordeal unfolded, losing 15%, and is now down a third from its peak in October.
So is the stock a buy ahead of its third-quarter earnings report on Tuesday? Let’s take a look at what to expect.
Image source: Nvidia.
The numbers will go up and to the right
Nvidia has delivered blowout numbers since the beginning of the AI era, and it’s set to do it again on Tuesday.
Analysts expect revenue to jump 90.7% to $108.7 billion and for adjusted earnings per share to nearly double from $1.30 to $2.47.
Those numbers closely reflect Nvidia’s guidance, and the company has a history of edging past its own outlook, so it’s a good bet to do so again.
Investors also typically pay close attention to Nvidia’s performance in the data center segment, its gross margin, and its guidance for the current quarter.
However, given the unique circumstances following Huang’s departure, those concerns are likely to take a back seat to how CFO and interim CEO Colette Kress handles the earnings call and any discussion about strategy going forward.
Typically, Huang and Kress were the only ones on the call, so who else she includes could offer a hint at the company’s next CEO or just at who’s being elevated in the current regime. The company is likely to avoid questions about the CEO transition or any legal consequences it may face for possible chip export violations. We may get a blanket statement or update from the company at the top of the call, but Kress and her team will likely focus on the usual business.
Is Nvidia a buy ahead of the earnings report?
Following its pullback since the peak in October, Nvidia is about as cheap as it’s ever been trading at a forward P/E of just 11. Given its growth rate around 90%, that makes the stock look like a stunning bargain.
However, the circumstances have changed for the company since Huang’s departure, and it now faces a massive risk that it didn’t before. Replacing Huang without losing any of the value he brought to the company will be very difficult, and there isn’t another person who would readily match his credibility and relationships with employees, customers, suppliers, and governments, his strategic vision for the company and AI, and his intimate knowledge of Nvidia and its product roadmap.
Of course, Huang’s reputation is tarnished now, but still, some hedge fund managers have called for him to be reinstated, and hundreds of employees signed a letter demanding the same.
Nvidia isn’t going to overcome this distraction with one earnings call, and I think there is more that can go wrong on Tuesday than can go right. Kress may handle the call adroitly and credibly present herself as a worthy caretaker, but even a good performance doesn’t solve the underlying challenges facing Nvidia in Huang’s absence. Alternatively, an earnings call that leaves more questions unanswered and makes Huang look irreplaceable could hammer the stock.
While Nvidia’s valuation may intrigue investors looking to buy the dip, this sell-off is about more than an earnings miss or a short-term business challenge. Management will have to assuage a lot of doubts before Nvidia stock can recover its losses, and that will take time. Given that, investors are better off staying on the sidelines for Tuesday’s earnings report.
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