Salesforce (CRM:NYSE) closed at $246.74 on October 15, 2026, up 4.57% on the day and 34.08% above its July 31 close of $184.02. Most of that run came on August 27, when shares jumped 22.58% after second-quarter results. The October 15 close sits 2.11% below that day’s $252.05.
No Salesforce-specific catalyst was confirmed for October 15. The gain came with the sector: ServiceNow (NOW) closed up 6.14% as investors rotated into enterprise software amid a sell-off in semiconductor shares.
Evidence from Salesforce’s September investor session, available through its investor relations materials, suggests AI usage is running ahead of what Salesforce bills for it.
Salesforce Drawdowns (TIKR)
Salesforce’s Top AI Customers Roughly Doubled Their ARR, but Billing Trails Usage
Robin Washington, President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer, spoke about the top 100 customers by Agentic Work Units, Salesforce’s measure of the work its agents complete. Among them, she said, “within 18 months of Agentforce’s launch, we’re seeing ARR uplift about 2x as to what it was.” As customers become agentic enterprises, she sees “a 3x to 4x opportunity for that ARR uplift” over several years.
The cohort is selected by usage, and Washington did not limit the annual recurring revenue figure to AI products. It shows what is possible, not what the average customer pays.
The lag comes from contract design. President and Chief Revenue Officer Alexa Vignone said that in Q2, “7 of our 10 largest deals were AELAs.” AELAs are flat, seat-based agentic enterprise license agreements. President and Chief Operating Officer Miguel Milano added that “Contract lengths are increasing.” In January, a Gartner analyst said she expects these capped deals to convert into defined-quantity contracts at renewal. Salesforce responded that its consumption-based AI pricing is tied to business outcomes.
Adecco and Siemens Show Where Repricing Comes From
Adecco Group (ADEN) runs 7 agents in 12 countries. Pierre Matuchet, its Senior Vice President of IT, said those agents cut the time to present candidates by 40% and lifted its fill rate by 10%. Adecco has decided to roll out Coworker to 27,000 users, which Milano said it could switch on under an edition it already owned.
Separately, Adecco’s two-year AELA, signed seven months before the session, carries “unlimited credit for all these use cases.” Milano’s renewal pitch: “What if we agree on a couple of metrics and then we share in your success?” That is a proposal, not a signed contract.
Siemens (SIE) is earlier in the cycle. CIO Frederik Janssen had 25 users piloting Claudeforce at the session; the product opened to all customers as a beta in September. He said that could reach 18,000, but Siemens still needs to “figure out what we are agreeing in terms of the pricing model behind it.” In the public sector, HMRC’s 10-year Salesforce CRM contract, reported September 29, is worth up to £2.4 billion including VAT. That figure is a ceiling rather than booked revenue.
The risk is timing. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Wood asked whether multiplying pricing models could make the reacceleration lumpy. Chair and CEO Marc Benioff answered with conviction but no figures. Revenue for the quarter ended July 31 grew 10.83% to $11.345 billion, including Informatica.
Salesforce EPS Normalized (TIKR)
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
Current Price: $246.74
Target Price (Mid): ~$445
Potential Total Return: ~81%
Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
Salesforce Advanced Valuation Model (TIKR)
TIKR’s mid case, the central scenario, points to around $445 by January 31, 2031. That is a total return of about 81%, or around 15% a year over 4.3 years. It sits well above both the Street mean of around $286 and Bank of America’s $285 target from its October 12 double upgrade.
Street estimates on TIKR have normalized EPS rising from $12.52 in fiscal 2026 to around $25 in fiscal 2031, about 15% a year over five fiscal years. Coverage that far out is thin: fiscal 2031 revenue estimates come from just 4 analysts. That EPS pace roughly matches the mid case’s annual return, so the target does not appear to need a higher multiple.
If AELAs convert to priced contracts at renewal, growth could run past the Street’s revenue path of around 10% a year. If customers resist repricing, that path, and the mid case with it, is at risk.
Conclusion
As of October 16, Salesforce had not announced a date for its fiscal third-quarter report; last year’s came on December 3, 2025. The metric to watch is current remaining performance obligation (cRPO), meaning signed revenue due within 12 months. Salesforce guided it to grow approximately 14%, excluding any contribution from Contentful and Fin. Matching that pace on the same basis would show usage becoming commitments, while a miss would suggest renewals are not repricing yet.
So what is Salesforce stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Salesforce could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
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