Ray Dalio’s Actions – Not His Words – Keep Me Buying Nvidia
Quick Read
Ray Dalio warns of an AI bubble while Bridgewater holds NVDA as its largest individual stock; revenue surged 106% to $96 billion last quarter.
AMD’s 224x P/E and 11% operating margin can’t compete with NVDA’s 60%; Broadcom’s 86% growth still trails NVDA while carrying significant debt risks.
Vera Rubin’s $40 billion per gigawatt revenue opportunity and a new dual-payment model extend NVDA’s supply-constrained growth runway through 2028.
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I keep adding to my NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) position, and the latest push came from a source I didn’t expect: Ray Dalio. At the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore, Dalio said the AI boom resembles a “classic bubble” and that we are nearing one. Then I looked at his portfolio. NVIDIA is Bridgewater Associates’ single largest individual stock holding and third-largest position overall. When a famous investor’s warnings and his holdings disagree, I go with the holdings.
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Demand It Can’t Fill Keeps Pulling Me Back
The full AI factory NVIDIA sells includes GPUs, CPUs, networking and the CUDA software that ties them together. My whole thesis rests on one line from the latest earnings call: “NVIDIA Compute is fully utilized across every cloud we serve.” Management expects revenue to grow approximately 70% in fiscal 2028, and it calls that number supply-constrained, because “customers’ forecasts point to our growth doubling next year.”
Three Receipts Behind Every Purchase
First, the growth is speeding up. Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 hit $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, and Data Center revenue reached $89.02 billion (+117%). Growth sped up for the fourth consecutive quarter, and third-quarter guidance calls for $108.0 billion.
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Second, the profitability is elite and the balance sheet is close to bulletproof. Net margin stands at 55.60%, return on invested capital at 92.21%, debt-to-equity at 0.073, and interest coverage at 503x. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow came to $96.58 billion.
Third, the price still works for me, and so does the cash coming back to owners. At a P/E of 46, I’m paying a reasonable multiple for a company that doubled its revenue. NVIDIA returned $26.0 billion to shareholders last quarter, raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 from $0.01 in May 2026, and still has about $99.0 billion left on its buyback authorization. The 0.018% yield is token income. I own NVIDIA for compounding, and over five years the stock has gained 985.59%.
Why My Money Skips AMD and Broadcom
AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) trades at roughly 224 times earnings with an operating margin of 10.66%. NVIDIA’s operating margin is 60.38%. I’d pay the lower multiple for the far higher margin every time. In its latest quarter, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) grew revenue 85.5%, a strong number that still trails NVIDIA. Broadcom also lists its indebtedness and reliance on a limited number of large customers as risks.
Risk That Could Actually Hurt Me
NVIDIA has $279 billion in supply commitments, and it caps guarantees to AI cloud partners at $108.5 billion. Days sales outstanding extended to 60 days from 45. China is gone from guidance, and Q1 brought $4.5 billion in H20 charges. If AI spending stalls, those commitments turn into a burden. The stock fell 5.27% last week as Barron’s flagged a warning in its chart.
My thesis holds because the spending keeps climbing. Top hyperscaler capex should reach nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027, and management expects supply to stay the constraint at least through the end of fiscal year 28.
What Keeps My Buy Button Active
Vera Rubin carries $40 billion per gigawatt of revenue opportunity, up from Blackwell’s $25 billion, and management expects it to be “the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA’s history.” On top of that, NVIDIA’s new neocloud revenue-sharing model means it gets “paid twice, once on the hardware sale and again through the share of rental revenue.”
Dalio can call it a bubble from the stage. I’ll keep reading his filings, and I’ll keep buying. Riding a mania is fine as long as you plan the exit, and we covered both sides in a free bubble survivor’s handbook.
Got $1,000? Before You Buy NVDA, Read This
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