Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and is tipping four home wins on Tuesday.
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Bournemouth have kept just one clean sheet away from home in 13 games this season and do concede a high volume of shots on target at their goal (85) – only Brentford have shipped more.
With the excellent Illya Zabarnyi missing due to suspension, Andoni Iraola will need to reshuffle his defensive line and Brighton arrive full of confidence having won their last three. This looks like a great spot for them to keep motoring towards those Champions League places.
Kaoru Mitoma is back to his devastating best in the Brighton frontline, scoring five in his last seven where he’s looking more dangerous making runs off his wing through the middle. The silky winger also has an excellent record playing against Bournemouth, scoring four in four.
The 7/2 with Sky Bet for Mitoma to score in a Brighton win looks overpriced.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, Tuesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Palace almost always score. And Villa almost always concede.
Oliver Glasner’s team have scored in 17 of their last 18 matches while the visitors have only kept a clean sheet in one of their last 16. Palace were so secure without the ball at Fulham at the weekend, conceding just 0.10 worth of expected goals from open play. That is an impressive feat against such a strong attacking team at home. I think they’ll nick this one.
Eberechi Eze has not looked himself owing to various niggly injuries this season but played 90 minutes and looked back to his sparky self on Saturday, hitting the target with two efforts. He’s had 22 shots on target in his last 18 home games and has scored in two of the last three fixtures with Villa. He is 7/2 with Sky Bet to score anytime which looks a generous price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Wolves vs Fulham, Tuesday 7.30pm
Matheus Cunha showed yet again at Bournemouth that he is everything to Wolves – and Vitor Pereira has played a blinder in pushing the Brazilian even more to the fore in the way he wants his team to play. Cunha is a Champions League player in a relegation fight.
Everything goes through him, which explains why his fouls drawn numbers are on the rise and is a betting angle to exploit.
In all eight starts under Pereira, Cunha has been fouled at least twice. A way of boosting the 8/13 price with Sky Bet to something more appealing at Evens would be to add Cunha to have a shot on target into the mix using the BuildABet function. He’s had 2.11 shots on target per 90 since Pereira took charge, registering 19 in total.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Southampton, Tuesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Chelsea have won just three of their last 12 matches across all competitions, but this is the fixture you want when your backs are against the wall. If Enzo Maresca can’t find a way past Southampton, then serious questions will need to be asked. They are 1/7 with Sky Bet for the home win.
The outright market is obviously a non-event from a betting point of view so heading elsewhere for an angle in makes sense. My eyes have been drawn to Enzo Fernandez in the foul involvement market – so, combining his fouls committed with fouls drawn. It’s his 4+ foul involvements line that stands out at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Enzo Fernandez is 6/4 for 4+ foul involvements
He’s all-action in the Chelsea midfield – in his last 14 starts, he has recorded 3.97 foul involvements per 90 with this bet landing eight times and in each of his last six starts. Saints are a foul-heavy team under Ivan Juric, making 13.7 fouls per 90 since he took over. Fernandez is likely to get involved on that front playing in the engine room.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Enzo Fernandez 4+ foul involvements (6/4 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bet…
- 1pt on Enzo Fernandez 4+ foul involvements (6/4 with Sky Bet)
