US financial regulators are examining what critics are calling potentially the largest insider-trading operation in American history — a series of enormous, impeccably timed bets on oil futures and stock indices that appeared minutes before President Donald Trump makes big, market-moving announcements about the war with Iran.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has opened a formal probe into trading activity on venues operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, according to Bloomberg. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been urged by multiple Democratic lawmakers to launch a parallel investigation. The SEC has so far declined to comment.
Suspicious moves and bets
A striking incident occurred on the morning of March 23, for instance. At 6:49am New York time, in otherwise quiet pre-market trading, a sudden and isolated surge of activity saw contracts representing at least six million barrels of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oil change hands within two minutes. Roughly 6,000 S&P 500 e-mini futures contracts — worth more than $2 billion — traded in the same narrow window, news agency reports noted.
Sixteen minutes later, at 7:05am, Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States had held talks with Iran and would halt planned strikes. Brent crude fell approximately 15%. US stocks rose nearly 4% from their session lows.
Earlier, on March 9, a large volume of bets on falling oil prices was placed 47 minutes before a CBS journalist posted on X about a Trump interview in which the president signalled the war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much”. Oil prices subsequently fell around 25%.
Ahead of Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran — which also sent oil prices down approximately 15% — senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse wrote to the CFTC that traders had placed approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices in the hours before the announcement. On April 7, traders moved more than 15 million barrels of oil contracts worth around $1.7 billion in the space of two minutes, in another incident flagged by Warren to the regulator.
A BBC investigation identified the same recurring pattern across multiple markets, finding spikes in trading volume in defence and energy stocks, shortly before Trump’s most significant public remarks.
The BBC did not prove intent, but noted the statistical anomaly “meets preliminary thresholds for further inquiry”.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six Polymarket prediction market accounts created in February 2026, all of which bet on a US strike against Iran by February 28.
The accounts collectively earned roughly $1.2 million after the attack took place. Five of the six placed no further bets. The sixth subsequently earned an additional $163,000 by correctly betting on a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7, the BBC noted.
Trump at nub of volatility
The involvement of prediction markets has created additional scrutiny given that the president’s son, Donald Trump Junior, is both an investor in and adviser to Polymarket, and a paid strategic adviser to its rival platform Kalshi. Both platforms announced tightened insider-trading rules on March 23. The White House separately issued a memo to staff, warning them not to place prediction market bets related to the Iran war.
Congresswoman Ritchie Torres described the March trading activity as potentially “one of the largest instances of insider trading in history”, and called on the SEC to obtain comprehensive trading records.
The broader context is one of a market unusually tethered to a single individual, Bloomberg has noted.
It cited analysis by research firm Fundstrat that found that Trump’s public statements — whether at White House briefings, formal press conferences, or posts on social media — have driven the five best and five worst days in the S&P 500 Index since he took office. No modern-era US president has come close to matching that record across the dozen administrations going back to Ronald Reagan.
“He has the market in a chokehold,” said Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat. “
The president isn’t supposed to have such an extraordinary amount of control over the fortunes of the stock market. It’s completely unprecedented,” she said.
CME Group, one of the exchanges under scrutiny, said in a statement: “Nothing is more important than market integrity. We vigorously surveil our markets and work closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activity.”
The exchange added that any review of market behaviour should also encompass prediction market platforms “that list related products with little to no visibility”.
The White House has called any implication that administration officials are engaged in trading on non-public information “baseless and irresponsible”.
