In Sussex, the 7 May local elections have the potential to shake loose decades of political certainty in the South East, and could serve as a bellwether for how the political winds are blowing across Britain.

Home to more than 1.7 million people, the county stretches all the way from Hampshire in the west to Kent in the east and makes up 137 miles of the UK’s south coast. Major local government changes are already set to redraw the political map in 2028, with East Sussex, West Sussex and Brighton all due to be united under a new “Mayoral Combined County Authority”. But before all that, this round of local elections could throw up some surprises – not least because it’s been a while.

In May, voters will be able to elect councillors to East and West Sussex county councils for the first time since 2021. On top of that, some borough and district councils are holding partial elections, allowing voters in Worthing, Hastings, Adur and Crawley to elect new councillors.

Much has changed since 2021, when the UK was reeling from the Covid-19 lockdowns and Boris Johnson was still prime minister.

Back then, Nigel Farage was in political retirement, Reform UK were yet to become a political force, and Sir Keir Starmer had been Labour leader for just a year. Meanwhile, the Green Party had two leaders but just one member of parliament – Brighton’s Caroline Lucas.

This means anticipation over what happens in Sussex is keen. Nationally, support for the standard-bearers of the two-party system – the Conservatives and Labour – has plummeted, with both parties taking a battering in the poll. Left- and right-wing contenders are outflanking them in the form of a revitalised Green Party under Zack Polanski’s leadership, and the Farage-helmed Reform UK.

But will this picture hold true locally? Both East Sussex and West Sussex have been held by the Conservatives at county level for 25 and 29 years respectively – and at the district and borough level, all but one of the councils where elections are happening are held by Labour. The outlier is Hastings, where the council is run by the Green Party, after the Labour-led administration collapsed in 2024.

In Worthing, which has two Labour MPs and whose council is also under Labour control, the party appears to have little to fear in the way of a Conservative challenge, but can it see off the growing Reform-Green threat?

When The Independent visited Worthing on a blustery March day, people’s concerns, support and contentions covered most of the political spectrum.

James, 44, fishing from the pier, said the state of politics in the UK is “disgusting”, and “everybody I talk to wants to see a Reform government, because it might get a little bit better on the immigration front”.

“All these people aren’t coming here for refuge. It’s a f***ing army,” he claimed, gesturing at a great expanse of empty sea.

Lou, also fishing off the pier, said: “As long as the Greens or Labour don’t get in, I think most people will be happy.”

Jilly Piper, who runs an art gallery in the centre of Worthing, told The Independent: “At the last election, the only people out canvassing and door-knocking were Labour,” adding that she had voted for them last time, but this time she hasn’t seen “anyone”. Since then, she said the council had been “wasting money”, and hoped neither Reform nor the Greens would make gains in Worthing, saying she hadn’t been impressed by the Greens’ “anti-car” policies in Brighton.

Retiree Rory Curry told The Independent he hoped Labour would retain leadership of the council. “People talk about Reform all the time, but I don’t like Reform. I don’t like their policies. I’m a liberal, so I wouldn’t vote for them at any point in time.”

Another retiree, Arif, said he voted Labour at the last election but won’t be voting for them again, and probably won’t vote. “I’m a Muslim from Cyprus, and I grew up in England, lived in Worthing for 41 years,” he said. “Most of them [politicians] promise you things, but then they don’t do it.” He said he would be concerned if Reform did well because “they want to send the immigrants back”.

Disillusionment with Labour was a key consideration for Tony Lockwood, a retired toolmaker, who told The Independent he would be voting Green. “The leader seems to have real heart and passion,” he said, speaking about Polanski. Despite his own enthusiasm, he said he remained unconvinced people in Worthing would rally around the Greens, as locals were “set in their ways”, but added that if Reform were voted in, “the country would go to rack and ruin”.

The atmosphere in Worthing was perhaps best summarised by Mirko Laganaro, the manager of Bites coffee shop in the centre of town. “I think we’ve got a mixed bag of nuts here at the moment,” he told The Independent. “I’m seeing more and more people pull towards a right-wing ideology despite Worthing having a pretty left-wing history – they kicked Oswald Mosley out. So coming from that and going towards a more right-wing mentality is quite strange.”

In Shoreham, a few miles east of Worthing, and the heart of the Adur council area, one local, Terri Jezeph, a retired nurse, described the coming elections as “a farce, as the whole area is going to be reconfigured”.

She told The Independent: “I’m a socialist, but I have very little regard for the British Labour Party, who can’t organise a p***-up in a brewery. I can see that Reform might get a hearing. I’d be horrified. They have no organisation and no policies.”

Another resident, Richard O’Neil, said he wouldn’t be voting for Labour or the Tories. “I think there’ll be an upset to the norm,” he said. “People are getting tired of the same political spin and rhetoric. Reform are definitely making ground and the Green Party are thriving as well. Restore Britain as well – I don’t know if they’ve got any sort of representation round here, and I think Rupert Lowe talks a lot of sense on some policies, and not so much on others.”

”If Reform did well, I’d probably leave,” said Kathy Davis, who has lived in Shoreham for four years. “But I’d like to think people have got more sense. It is a worry because the right-wing press slag off the Labour government. I’d love the Greens to win – it’s the way forward.”

The leader of Adur council, Labour’s Jeremy Gardner, admitted that “it would be daft not to have concerns, given we can obviously see the national opinion polls”.

He added: “Locally, if people actually look at our record, what we’ve done in the last two years, we should be OK. If it’s on local issues, then we are confident. The Tories are haemorrhaging councillors,” he said, adding that one Conservative had tried to defect to Reform, but the party hadn’t let him in.

Heading further east, to Hastings, where the council is controlled by the Greens, talk of a 7 May local election was news to many people, but among those who were aware, there was confidence the Greens would retain power, as well as concern about the rise of Reform nationally.

Chris King, a music promoter, told The Independent the Labour-led council in Hastings, which collapsed in 2024, had been “terrible for years” and that the Greens have been “a bit better”. “I don’t want Reform to get in, but I think they might stand a chance.”

Jane Carey, who is retired, told The Independent: “The Greens are doing a good job,” and said their national momentum could give them an edge in Hastings. However, she added: “The national papers and broadcasters have really been pushing Reform, and I’m really fed up with it. It’s outrageous. They’re making people believe that Reform is going to win.”

Council leader Glenn Haffenden said: “In Hastings, it’s going to be a clear race between Reform or Green. Labour aren’t doing very well nationally at all.

”People do see the difference between national and local politics, I do believe that. We had a Labour council for a very long time, so having a Green council and seeing the difference in what that actually means is going to have a huge effect for us – the Greens – locally.”

He added: “Zack being our leader is the best thing that’s ever happened to the Green Party nationally. For the first time nationally and locally, people are seeing the Greens as a party that can win, and do win.”

He suggested that a good showing for the party at the local elections could also have implications for the next general election and the party’s chances of adding to its roster of MPs.

Local gains for Reform would be “awful”, Haffenden said. “We celebrate our diversity in Hastings. My biggest fear of having Reform in is that they are against that. They don’t celebrate diversity. They don’t celebrate what makes Hastings different and what many residents are proud of about living in Hastings.”

Less than two weeks away from the elections, the political future for Sussex looks more alien than at any other time in the past three decades.

Sussex’s unofficial motto is “We wunt be druv” – local dialect for “we won’t be driven” – a reminder that the county has long prided itself on doing things its own way. Today, the question remains whether that independent streak will once again make itself felt at the ballot box – and in which direction people “wunt be druv”.