Will Vladimir Putin be the real winner of Trump and Netanyahu’s war on Iran? The Russian federal budget for 2026 was based on an anticipated average of $59 per barrel of Urals crude and is now benefitting from soaring oil prices, which edged above $110 on 19 March. The US, concerned about rising energy costs, has temporarily suspended sanctions against India for its imports of Russian crude, ignoring the resulting complaints from many European capitals. In the midst of an election campaign, Hungarian president Viktor Orbán is demanding that Ukraine restore Russian oil supplies to his country through the Druzhba pipeline – otherwise he threatens to block a vital €90bn EU loan to Kyiv. And best of all for Moscow, the Gulf states are purchasing US air defence systems in large quantities, diverting them from the Ukrainian military.

But the Kremlin isn’t celebrating just yet. Russia fears losing a strategic ally – its last in the Middle East after the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. After drones (most likely Iranian) struck Azerbaijani territory early this March, Moscow is also worried that the conflict could spread to the South Caucasus. Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 had already caused Russian influence in the region to wane in favour of the US and Turkey.

Moscow has therefore been measured in its response to the bombings in Iran. In a letter of condolence to Iran’s president, Putin described the Supreme Leader’s assassination as a ‘cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law’ but refrained from naming a culprit. On 11 March Russia abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution that condemned Iran’s attacks on other Middle East countries ‘in the strongest terms’. Russia’s own draft resolution, ‘aimed at urgently deescalating the situation’, was vetoed by the US (…)

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