US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, lead the world’s two most powerful nations and, as such, their meeting in Beijing today could have major ramifications for the global order.

But as one leader’s popularity is tanking and the other’s power is growing, one other question looms over the summit: who really has the most to win or lose?

Trump has arrived in Beijing on the back foot, burdened by the economic and geopolitical headaches caused by the war in Iran and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway.

It’s a global, searing pain that Beijing, the closest ally of Iran, could have the ability to influence and mend.

But the United States will be asking, at what price?

Tehran hangs over summit

When Trump left Washington for Beijing yesterday, he told reporters he doesn’t need Xi to intervene in the Middle East crisis and said America doesn’t “need any help with Iran”.

But there is no doubt that China is playing a significant role in persuading Tehran back to peace negotiations.

In March, Pakistan’s foreign minister flew to Beijing to ask for Chinese support for the country’s efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.

And not long after Trump announced he was pausing the US effort to guide vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz last week, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing in what was seen as a symbolic reminder to the US of its influence and ties with Tehran.

So, the issue of Iran will be top of the agenda.

Resolving the war is in the interests of both leaders. Half of China’s crude oil passes through the strait, and the global economic instability caused by the conflict impacts China’s financial strength.

Meanwhile, the war has become a gnawing distraction for Trump that has left him politically weakened and tanking in popularity.

But while Beijing wants to appear useful and leverage an opportunity for Xi to swoop in with a statesman-like rescue, it also won’t want to embroil itself in an unpopular conflict.

And it won’t roll over easily on any requests for its help while it is still smarting from recent US sanctions imposed on several Chinese companies accused of assisting Iran, which Beijing has denied.

But Beijing will be cautious in its approach to Iran unless it can extract concessions from Washington.

Taiwan deal up for discussion

Some analysts have suggested that the reward could revolve around America’s position on Taiwan, the independently governed island that China claims as part of its territory and wants to reunify with, by force if necessary.

Earlier this year, Trump’s government infuriated Beijing by promising a record-breaking $US11 billion arms package to Taiwan.

But the deal has now reportedly been put on ice ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

China would like to see the deal axed completely and has put it firmly on the agenda.

“I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi,” Trump said earlier this week about the anticipated delivery of the weapons cache.

“President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.”

China considers Taiwan the most sensitive linchpin in the success or failure of US-Sino relations, and will use this trip to hammer home its position.

It’s also possible Beijing will try to push Washington to explicitly oppose Taiwan independence, and change its strategically ambiguous language on the issue.

But it’s highly unlikely America will want to spend too much time bogged down in Taiwan-related negotiations, let alone make any shift on its official position.

Trump, after all, won’t want to be seen bowing to Beijing.

Trade also on the agenda

Any help resolving the Tehran quagmire could also be useful leverage for the other main item on the agenda: trade.

Beijing will want, at the bare minimum, an extension of the trade truce agreed to last year, but is also likely to push for longer-term stability and assurances around tariffs.

Washington will be hoping to secure more trade deals in agriculture and technology, and Trump is being accompanied by some of America’s biggest investors in China, including Tesla’s Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook.

While it’s likely there will be some (already agreed-upon) trade progression announced after the summit, many analysts are sceptical there will be any significant changes or breakthroughs.

The more important outcome of this meeting is generally agreed to be the maintenance of stability in one of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationships.

The first visit of a US president to China in nine years is significant enough in its own right.

It demonstrates America’s willingness to engage with China’s growing geopolitical and economic power, and is an ongoing acceptance that both countries need each other.

But the stakes of this meeting have been raised in the shadow of global instability and talks of a new world order with China at the helm.

On the surface, both sides will project friendship, cooperation and a willingness to cement a more stable relationship.

But behind the scenes, there will likely still be a test of strength across multiple fronts.

And each leader will be competing to capitalise on turning leverage into diplomatic advantage.