Collinson FX: April 15: Markets rally – brush off Middle East talks failure
by Collinson FX 15 Apr 10:16 AEST
15 April 2026
Centennial Cup – Wakatere Centennial Regatta – February 2026 © Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
April 15: A blockade rally:
Markets rallied overnight, with bond yields drifting lower and US equities heading back towards record highs.
The failure in peace negotiations, between Iran and the USA, was brushed off. The US blockade and the far-reaching consequences of such a move surprised the Iranians. Communications resume.
The US Dollar continued to decline, with the EUR surging to 1.1800, while the GBP hit 1.3570.
The RBNZ warned of a looming inflation explosion and rate rises would be needed, if the inflation balloon materialised. Not if the war concludes and this is a temporary bubble. The NZD continued to gain ground, hitting 0.5900, while the AUD powered through 0.7100. Chinese imports surged, in the last month, reflecting the provisioning for a crisis.
April 14: Markets retreat:
Iran’s peace negotiations with the US in Islamabad failed after a long weekend of talks.
Oil prices zoomed back to US$100pb, while equities nervously await further developments.
President Trump immediately blocked the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, in response, stranding the Iranians. This was enough to trigger a response from the Iranians, who contacted the US immediately following the move, which will perhaps encourage them to be more flexible in negotiations.
The fragile ceasefire continues so markets remain nervous. The US Dollar was lower, with the EUR trading 1.1760, while the GBP pushed just above 1.3500.
The AUD looks to regain 0.7100, with the softer reserve, while the NZD consolidates above 0.5850. All eyes remain focused on the Middle East and the energy crises.
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