File photo. The Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, part of a task group operating to the north east of Australia, pictured on 11 February 2025.
Photo: AFP / Australian Defence Force

Activity by Chinese military ships in the Tasman sea is a “gift from Beijing” to a government trying to persuade the public of the need to spend more on defence, says a defence expert.

The New Zealand Defence Force – in conjunction with Australian authorities – are continuing to monitor three Chinese naval ships off the coast of Australia.

The defence minister said on Friday this was “quite a significant event.”

Professor David Capie, the director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Victoria University, said there have been Chinese vessels around New Zealand and Australia, but the “particular configuration of vessels,” the “live firing exercises” and that it had “spilled over and required commercial airlines to be diverted” made this significant.

“I think it will really have quite a strong effect on public opinion and public perceptions.”

Capie indicated a lot of New Zealanders have probably felt this kind of “sharper strategic competition” and “military jostling” was something that happened far away, “that’s really over the horizon” and not something to be concerned about.

“But I think when you have military vessels engaging in live firing exercises with pretty limited notice, [and] from what we know, causing flights to be diverted, that comes home quite sharply to ordinary people.”

Capie said we were “living through a period of pretty fundamental change”.

“The balance of power is changing in our region.

Read more:

“We’ve got lots of big powers that are rethinking what they get out of the current international order, including the country that, for New Zealand, has been in some ways, the most powerful defender of an international order – the United States.”

He said the Chinese ships in the Tasman Sea pointed to a world that was changing in ways that were not favourable to a small democratic open trading nation.

China had a slow and steady, sustained growing interest in the Pacific, said Capie. He pointed to China’s increasing naval presence in the Pacific, the ICBM launch into the South Pacific, and the agreement between China and the Cook Islands which New Zealand “clearly found surprising” as examples of that.

“This is just one more data point which really drives home the fact that this sort of sharper strategic competition, this hard balancing, it’s not something that’s far away anymore. It’s something that’s very much in our neighbourhood.”

He said successive governments had talked about a deterioration in New Zealand’s strategic environment, and an ongoing process of “reflecting on defence policy that we’ve been told will lead to some additional investment,” but said defence spending had gone down last year and there was a lot of pressure on the current defence budget.

“I would say, if you have a government that’s trying to persuade a public of the need to spend more on defence, something like this is a gift from Beijing.”

He said hard questions need to be asked, and one of the challenges is not just to increase defence spending, but also replace current ships, and bring on board new capabilities.

“Not just to increase it in a one off hit, but actually to find a way to do it in a sustainable way over time.”

Coalition on defence spending

Defence Minister Judith Collins confirmed the Defence Capability Review – which provides a roadmap for defence spending and strategy – was expected in the “relatively short-term”.

Defence Minister Judith Collins.
Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro

She said it was going to be a “big budget item” for the coalition, that it had to be done, and it had to be done well. She also indicated it had to be done carefully, in a sustainable manner, and in a way that “stays with us and stays in our psyche”.

Associate Finance Minister David Seymour said the activity by Chinese military ships in the Tasman Sea pointed to why New Zealand needed greater investment in defence.

Seymour said China’s actions complied with international law, but what might be causing alarm was the location and the relatively short notice given about the exercises.

He was pleased all government parties were committed to more defence investment, and to expect more details as the budget approached in May.

“We do need greater investment in our defence.

“The whole environment is becoming more strategically competitive in the indo-pacific and I’m pleased to say that this government is made up of three parties all of whom are committed to more defence investment.”

Seymour said “you’ll see more of that” as the Budget approached in May.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.