The Milwaukee Brewers are one win from their first World Series title, more than five decades after starting out as the bankrupt Seattle Pilots. The stock market has its own reasons to cheer them on against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The stock market has risen in about 71% of the years after a National League team won the World Series, compared with 67% for all years since 1928, according to Yahoo Finance calculations. A Rays comeback would mean an American League title won in seven games, and the market has risen after only six of those 14.
Think of it as the market’s batting average. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has hit .714 in the year after a National League title and .636 after an American League win, against a lifetime mark of .673. Average gains line up the same way, about 11% after NL wins, about 8% for all years, and about 6% after AL wins.
That’s a modest edge, not a forecast.
Stocks rise in most years, regardless of who wins. Read strictly, the idea that an NL title means stocks go up and an AL title means they go down has been right 50 times in 97 World Series. That’s a coin flip.
The seven-game AL record also comes with an asterisk. Seven of the eight down years that followed one came between 1945 and 1973, and stocks rose after four of the five since 1985.
Milwaukee’s World Series history comes with good market timing
The city’s baseball history has a curious habit of showing up near stock market lows. The Milwaukee Braves won the 1957 World Series on Oct. 10, and the bear market hit bottom 12 days later. The S&P 500 then gained 38% in 1958.
The Brewers’ only other series trip, in October 1982, came two months after the low that started the long bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. They lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games.
The Rays haven’t been as lucky with their timing. Their first World Series, in 2008, came during the S&P 500’s worst month since 1987. Their second came in 2020, the pandemic year.
None of this means a baseball game moves stock prices. Either way, a first-time champion is guaranteed, and the market rose in the year after 10 of the 13 first titles since 1935.
Game 5 starts at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday in St. Petersburg, Fla. A Brewers win ends the series. A Rays win sends it back to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Friday and keeps the seven-game scenario alive.
Internal AI tools helped analyze interview transcripts, research, and draft this post. Humans reviewed, edited, and fact-checked this post before publication.
Follow Jared Blikre on X @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
