For the third straight weekend, Connecticut is facing the potential for significant snowfall, but this weekend’s nor’easter is far from a guarantee.
The National Weather Service Boston office said in Wednesday morning’s forecast discussion, “All outcomes remain on the table, ranging from a dry pass offshore and no impact at all to a high-ceiling, slow-moving winter storm with several impacts.”
Here are some of the most likely scenarios, given the latest forecast model data.
Scenario 1: Another high-impact winter storm
In the wake of this past Sunday’s major snowstorm, the early forecasts for this Sunday are bringing back memories of shoveling snow that are all too fresh. As New York Yankees legend Yogi Berra once said, “it’s Déjà vu all over again.”
We’re confident in seeing a large and powerful storm system off the East Coast, but the question is, how close does it track to Connecticut, and how much snow could we see?
In this scenario, that strong storm will track a bit more to the west, bringing heavy snow and gusty winds into Connecticut for much of the day on Sunday. If (and that’s a big if) this scenario plays out, much of the state would see more than 6 inches of snow with near-blizzard conditions at times.
The proximity of the storm’s low pressure center to Connecticut will be an important factor in how much snow the state sees on Sunday. (WeatherBELL)
Scenario 2: Missing to the east
On Wednesday morning, some forecast models began trending farther east with the storm’s track, pushing the precipitation shield a bit farther offshore and keeping Connecticut mainly dry on Sunday. Other than a few snow showers, this would be the “best-case scenario” for those who really don’t want to see any more snowfall.
On Wednesday morning, several computer models pushed the potential weekend storm a bit farther east, keeping snow away from Connecticut. (WeatherBELL)
Scenario 3: A glancing blow
Just like an argument between two people, the answer often lies in compromise. This scenario is a blend of both extremes, bringing some snow to Connecticut while avoiding a major disruption like the last storm did.
As of Wednesday morning, both major global forecast model ensembles show a “glancing blow” from this storm, bringing a few inches of snow to parts of the state on Sunday.
Ensemble forecasts are an effective way for meteorologists to determine the probability of an upcoming weather event. For example, the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) runs the GFS model 30 times consecutively, each with an initial variable slightly tweaked. That variability helps account for bad data points or other random chaos, delivering a probability-based forecast that can be useful when there are a wide range of possibilities in a given storm.
A glancing blow of minor to moderate snow totals across Connecticut is a very real possibility. (WeatherBELL)
The bottom line
We know there will be a significant coastal storm nearby this upcoming weekend, but it’s just too early to determine any specific impacts to Connecticut yet.
Thursday will likely be the day that forecast models will gain a better understanding of the storm. That’s not to say that we’ll be “locking in” the forecast at that point, but each passing day will give us a better idea of how this complex system will evolve.
In other words, stay tuned for now, and stay warm.
This article originally published at Tracking this weekend’s nor’easter in Connecticut: A breakdown of the 3 most likely scenarios.
