MILAN — As the long-awaited rebound from the luxury slump of the past few years fails to gain momentum, the holiday season could offer some relief for the sector.
But growth across Black Friday, China’s 11:11 Global Shopping Festival and during international tourist flows in December requires tailored strategies.
A no-size-fits-all approach is going to succeed, according to a PwC study presented in Milan as part of the Pambianco PwC Fashion Summit, in its 31st edition this year.
Pricing has become an increasingly potent lever across geographies, as luxury consumers look for value for money purchases. The consultancy said 70 percent of consumers it surveyed this year said they gave up buying luxury products, feeling price was misaligned with the inherent value. In particular in Europe, Gen Z and Millennial consumers cited a lack of newness and originality among the top reasons for their disaffection to luxury brands.
According to its holiday outlook, spending in the U.S. for gifting is projected to inch down 2 percent versus 2025, with an average spending per capita of $708, driven by a reduction especially among Gen X, Millennials and Gen Zers. Baby Boomers said they will spend 6 percent more compared to the 2025 holiday season, but purchases will be highly informed by sales and promotions for 79 percent of respondents across demographic tiers.
Overall, the U.S. consumer base has become increasingly polarized, the study found. Brands that had reduced the number of entry-price products, zeroing in on high-net-worth individuals to drive growth, are developing more diversified merchandise and pricing mixes to lure aspirational shoppers in-store.
PwC said the tally of Dior’s leather goods products under 4,000 euros grew from 69 percent in 2023 to 87 percent in 2026. At Chanel, the amount jumped from 4 percent to 30 percent over the same period. Other brands pushed their pricing downward for clusters of products, as was the case with Gucci’s offering of carryovers experiencing a 20 percent reduction in prices.
These strategies could bolster Americans’ appetite for fashion this holiday season.
To be sure, a sharper reduction in spending in the country of about 24 percent is expected in travel, which could potentially impact footfall at luxury boutiques in Europe, according to Erika Andreetta, partner at PwC Italia and Europe, Middle East and Africa fashion and luxury leader.
Fashion, meanwhile, appears to be slightly more resilient, with 67 percent of U.S. respondents expecting to gravitate toward apparel and footwear, both as a self-present and for family and friends.
The trend is reflected in Europe, where consumers placed fashion among the top three categories to spend on during Black Friday weekend at the end of the month, particularly in Italy and Turkey. Electronics, beauty and wellness products follow suit, while hard luxury ranks last across countries, reflecting the sector’s abstention from Black Friday promotions, Andreetta said.
Harrods’ holiday 2026 facade.
Courtesy/Ross Walker
The majority of European consumers will buy Christmas and holiday presents during Black Friday — as much as 84 percent in Ireland, and 78 percent in Italy. Increases in average spending versus 2025 will vary among geographies, with only 21 percent of Italian shoppers and 24 percent of German consumers expecting to spend more than last year.
Prospects in China are highly influenced by the country’s policies on consumption, with incentives during Golden Week in early October geared toward automotive and electronics but not luxury products.
According to Andreetta, the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival that is coming to a close this week provided insights on local consumers’ shopping patterns, less reliant on discounts and more on the quality of products and services.
The PwC partner said the best-performing categories have included beauty and wellness as well as outdoor, while real winners were those able to seize the opportunities of livestreaming shopping, as well as experiences tailored toward VICs and digital-native consumers, including local capsule collections and drops.
Chinese shoppers walk past a Dior store in Chengdu.
Getty Images
Overall, the study found that the Chinese wealthy pack has been spending more in travel and gold, rather than soft luxury products, with about 33 percent of respondents among high-net-worth individuals forecasting a reduction in spending in the near future.
These market trends could stretch well into the first months of 2027, Andreetta said.
On a longer-term basis, she provided an outlook for Latin America as the next big market opportunity, whose full potential will be perhaps best expressed over the next six to eight years when the European Union deal with the Mercosur region is to come into effect.
The current 35 percent tariffs are to be phased out over the period, as the luxury market in the region is expected to grow significantly, especially in Mexico, set to experience 5 percent year-over-year growth in the next five years. In the meantime, Andreetta advised brands to secure the wealthy consumers from the region while they travel to Miami and Europe.
