Liam Rosenior was eager to point out that Chelsea were fourth in the Premier League table since his appointment as head coach in the lead-up to their meeting with Manchester City on Sunday.
He might be better off not checking those standings now.
With the three-goal reverse at Stamford Bridge, they slipped five places to ninth under Rosenior. A third straight Premier League loss without scoring has increased the pressure on the head coach.
Factor their chastening 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League last 16 and it’s five losses from six games in all competitions. Facing an uphill battle to secure a top-five finish, are Chelsea going backwards under Rosenior?
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Results show little progress
His tenure started positively, with Chelsea winning his first four Premier League games in charge against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolves. But they have only won one of seven since.
An unbeaten Premier League start was ended by Arsenal on March 1, with the Gunners having also beaten them in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi-final. The gulf between Chelsea and the elite was made to look even wider by PSG and Manchester City.
“Rosenior started well and got some good results, but when Chelsea play the big boys, they get beaten up,” said Sky Sports’ Paul Merson.
Rosenior has secured impressive wins away to Napoli and Aston Villa, in his defence. But on the back of the Manchester City loss, it is easy to understand why supporters are feeling pessimistic ahead of Saturday’s meeting with Manchester United.
Chelsea’s record compared before and since Rosenior’s appointment
Rosenior was tasked with getting Chelsea back on track after a stormy end to Enzo Maresca’s reign following his appointment from Strasbourg but his record, three months in, is strikingly similar.
Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game on his watch so far. It is a slight increase on 1.48 per game previously this season, so overall they have not gone backwards in terms of results, but it still the third lowest by a Chelsea boss since 2004.
It is also well short of what is needed to secure a Champions League spot. If Chelsea were to carry on at the same rate in their remaining fixtures, they would finish on just 57 points, which is only five points higher than fifth-placed Liverpool’s current total.
The worry is that the trajectory of their form suggests that even that might be beyond them unless their under-fire head coach can oversee dramatically improved results in the week ahead.
Inherited issues
Rosenior issued a reminder that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to “sort things out” at Manchester City and Liverpool in his press conference after Sunday’s loss.
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The 41-year-old is only 11 Premier League games into his reign having taken the job mid-season in tough circumstances.
He is not responsible for the recruitment which has left them with a squad lacking experience and leadership. He is also having to deal with the consequences of the sheer volume of football they have played having gone the distance in the Club World Cup last summer.
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But fans are still entitled to have expected more.
Chelsea’s mental fragility is not new. They lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the season. But the issue has only become more pronounced under Rosenior.
Their Premier League form has not recovered from surrendering two and one-goal leads against Leeds and Burnley in consecutive games in February. Sunday’s loss to Manchester City followed similar capitulations against PSG and Everton.
Rosenior has been unable to get a grip on Chelsea’s issues with ill-discipline. Red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly.
Since Rosenior’s first Premier League game in charge in January, Chelsea have received more cards than any other side.
The head coach is not accountable for the comments which led to Enzo Fernandez’s internal two-game suspension. But it is just another example of a player stepping out of line.
Encouragement in underlying numbers?
Four points behind Liverpool with only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea’s outlook does not look bright when it comes to securing an all-important Champions League finish. Missing out on that prize could be bad news for Rosenior.
Based on their second-half collapse against Manchester City on Sunday, Chelsea might soon have to start looking over their shoulders in the Premier League table. There is, though, some encouragement for Rosenior to be found in the underlying numbers.
Recent results have been damaging but overall Chelsea’s Premier League performances under Rosenior have been much better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals data.
In fact, Chelsea’s net expected goals in the three months since Rosenior’s appointment is the second-highest among Premier League sides, behind only leaders Arsenal.
Chelsea’s total shows they have created far better chances than they have conceded and puts them above Manchester City and Liverpool, suggesting their performances since the change of head coach have been better than their results suggest.
The graphic below, showing a rolling average of Chelsea’s expected goals and expected goals against, highlights Rosenior’s positive impact in the context of their season. But the numbers have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle.
Of course, results matter most, especially with so much at stake at this point of the season. And after three straight Premier League losses without scoring, following their Champions League demolition by Paris Saint-Germain, Rosenior has his work cut out to prove he is the man to take the club forward.
