NZD/USD has been thrashed since the start of the US-Iran war, amid heavy concerns about energy supply in the Land of the Kiwi.
At the beginning of 2026, the New Zealand Dollar was on a powerful run. Traders priced higher odds for rate hikes, while most other Central Banks were priced for pauses and cuts. Since then, pricing has dramatically shifted.
Numerous policymakers now hint at incoming rate hikes to diminish the inflationary impact of 60% rises in Oil prices.
Having lost some relative strength, the new Governor Anna Breman failed to forecast a significant hawkish turn that had been anticipated by Market participants earlier in the year – You can access her recent Speech right here.
Having missed its Q4 GDP data, released in mid-March, traders quickly began pricing out any signs of heating in the NZ economy.
Combine these factors with a gigantic rise in the Petrodollar since March, and traders got exactly what they needed to not only take profits on previous bullish views but also reverse them into a bearish trend – the major pair is down 4.75% since.
The upcoming meeting is strongly priced for a pause (about 90% odds).
However, traders have priced in 60 basis points of hikes for the rest of the year.
Given the turn in fundamentals and upcoming event, the drops in NZD/USD might just be over.
Traders will focus on New Zealand macro data and especially the Royal Bank’s inflation outlook for the next meeting (May 27, 2026).
Combine high odds of more hawkish communications with daily bullish divergences (see below), and the NZD/USD could be poised for a decent upside reversal – The rest will be to see if it leads to a proper uptrend.
To prepare for the upcoming key RBNZ meeting this evening, it is appropriate to conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of NZD/USD and assess potential scenarios.
NZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
NZD/USD Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. April 7, 2026
The Kiwi Dollar has entered a significant downtrend since beginning March, easing from 0.60 right below 0.57.
Subject to heavy profit taking from its mid-January gigantic rise, the selloff accelerated as concerns for antipodean crude delivery kept looming on the NZD buying power.
The conflict is nearing an important turning point; A de-escalation deadline is about to expire, so if the situation worsens, the outlook can be quite cloudy – To help yourself to spot a direction, it can be quite essential to look at the Dollar Index (DXY), remaining close to 100.00. Rejecting its highs will help NZD/USD to rebound.
If de-escalation occurs, NZD/USD is poised for a consequent reversal, particularly as the RBNZ is expected to tighten the screws for a potential future hike – Combine this with prices reaching the bottom of its main downward channel, and technicals are also corroborating this view.
Be careful as Monetary Policy meetings can be quite unpredictable, hence the largest traders will await for the decision to move their pawns.
Let’s take a closer look to spot levels of interest for the ongoing correction.
4H Chart and Technical Levels
NZD/USD 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. April 7, 2026
The immediate action is still indecisive, as seen with the RSI hanging around the neutral zone.
To tilt the scales however, the recent dip below 0.57 could not hold, hence bulls could be getting the upper hand in coming times. This will need to be confirmed after the RBNZ meeting (tonight) and particularly after a break of the 4H 50-period MA (0.57275).
Trading Levels for NZD/USD:
Resistance Levels
- 4H 50-period MA (0.57275)
- 0.5770 to 0.5790 Major Momentum Pivot (channel highs)
- 0.5850 December High Pivotal Resistance
- 0.5885 to 0.59 Minor resistance
- September 2025 Pivot area 0.60 to 0.60150
Support Levels
- Main Support 0.57 (+/- 150 pips) – testing
- War lows 0.56825
- Minor Support 0.5650
- January 2025 Support 0.56
1H Chart
NZD/USD 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. April 7, 2026
Looking even closer to the 1H timeframe, the Major FX pair marks heavy indecision as traders await the key fundamental events to make their moves.
- Above 0.57275, bulls take the upper hand which would point to 0.58850 (Channel highs)
- Below 0.5690, bears retake control and point to further selling acceleration.
Safe Trades and good luck for the upcoming meeting!
