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Wintrust Financial (WTFC) has drawn fresh attention after its recent share pullback, with the stock down about 12% over the past month and roughly 8% over the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Wintrust Financial.
While the recent 12% 1 month share price decline and 7% year to date share price return put short term momentum under pressure, the 1 year total shareholder return of about 20% and 3 year total shareholder return of about 91% suggest longer term holders have still seen strong gains.
If recent banking volatility has you reassessing your watchlist, it may be worth widening your search using our screener of 20 top founder-led companies
With Wintrust trading at $132.19, alongside an indicated 49% intrinsic discount score and a 28% gap to analyst targets, the key question is simple: are you looking at a genuine value opportunity, or is the market already factoring in future growth?
On a P/E of 11.5x, Wintrust Financial is priced slightly above both its peer group and the broader US Banks industry, which sit at 11.2x, even as the SWS DCF model points to a fair value of $259.81 versus the current $132.19 share price.
The P/E ratio links the current share price to earnings and is a common way investors compare banks with similar business models. For Wintrust, the market is putting a small premium on each dollar of earnings compared with peers, despite analyst forecasts that revenue and earnings growth will run slower than the wider US market and below the 20% level often associated with fast growers.
Compared with the US Banks industry average of 11.2x, that 11.5x P/E premium is modest but very clear. It also sits below the estimated fair P/E of 12.8x that the SWS fair ratio model suggests the market could move toward if expectations align more closely with those implied fundamentals. Result: Price-to-Earnings of 11.5x (ABOUT RIGHT)
Explore the SWS fair ratio for Wintrust Financial
However, that apparent discount could prove misleading if banking sector stress returns or if Wintrust struggles to sustain its recent 8% annual revenue and net income growth.
Find out about the key risks to this Wintrust Financial narrative.
The P/E discussion suggests Wintrust is roughly in line with peers, but the SWS DCF model paints a different picture. On that view, the current $132.19 price sits well below an estimated $259.81 fair value. This implies the cash flow story is much stronger than the earnings multiple alone suggests. Which measure do you think the market will pay more attention to over time?
