Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT Asia. In today’s newsletter:

• China’s silver bear wins big

• Can Takaichi govern Japan on star power alone?

• Indian leaders duck Trump’s Russian oil claim

• Where to stay in Hong Kong

We have an exclusive story today on Chinese trading firm Zhongcai Futures, which has emerged as a big winner from the recent rout in silver.

Rare silver bear: Zhongcai has booked profits of more than Rmb3.6bn ($519mn) since Friday morning after building up short positions in silver in late January, according to FT calculations based on disclosures to the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Founded three decades ago by Bian Ximing as a manufacturer of PVC pipes before branching into futures trading, Zhongcai stands out as a rare silver bear in mainland China, even as a blistering rally in the metal gathered pace through January.

Why it matters: Zhongcai’s profits highlight the recent wild volatility in precious metals trading, particularly in China, where regulators have been working to tamp down on speculative activity. It also underscores how the centre of gravity for gold and silver trading is gradually shifting towards Asia, where a frenzy of retail investment in bullion was central to driving January’s historic price surge.

Read more about Zhongcai’s aggressive bets.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: January inflation data is due from Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines. Indonesia reports fourth-quarter GDP and Singapore publishes December retail sales.

• Results: Sony, Tata Motors, Nippon Steel, Amazon, Shell

• Ask an Expert Q&A: Are US markets and the economy as strong as Trump claims? Take part in a live Q&A today with US managing editor Brooke Masters and financial commentator Robert Armstrong.

Five more top stories

1. Donald Trump said he had spoken to Xi Jinping about the Ukraine war, Taiwan and other issues, in a call that came two months before the Chinese leader is expected to welcome the US president on a state visit in Beijing. The call took place after Xi spoke to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, according to Chinese state media.

• More US-China news: Nvidia’s sales of H200 AI chips to China are still awaiting final approval from Washington as the US government conducts a national security review.

• Panama ports deal: CK Hutchison has taken Panama to arbitration after the Central American country’s top court ruled to kick out the Hong Kong-based conglomerate from ports on its canal.

2. The US has launched an effort to form a trade zone for critical minerals with allies including Japan and the EU. The initiative marks a rare instance of global trade co-operation from the Trump administration, as it works to reduce western reliance on China for a wide range of critical minerals. Here are more details.

• Related: Beijing’s dominance of rare earths has sparked a rush among buyers to source the metals elsewhere, with more than 30 projects set for production this decade.

3. Companies linked to Indonesia’s richest man have announced share buybacks after a market rout triggered by a downgrade warning from index provider MSCI helped wipe out more than a quarter of his net worth. Billionaire Prajogo Pangestu has lost $11.7bn of his wealth since the start of the year amid Indonesia’s worst stock sell-off since the Asian financial crisis of 1998, according to Bloomberg data.

4. Google said it plans to spend at least $55bn more on capital expenditure this year than Wall Street had forecast, as it doubles down on its huge spending on AI. The search giant increased its forecast for capex in 2026 to a range of $175bn to $185bn, far exceeding analysts’ expectations for about $120bn.

• Markets: US tech stocks were hit by a fresh wave of selling yesterday, adding fuel to a sell-off sparked by concerns about the impact of AI on software businesses.

• Anthropic’s new AI tools: The start-up’s advances have rattled markets this week, amid fears of disruption across sectors from publishing and advertising to law.

5. A top Senate Republican has said Fed chair Jay Powell has not “committed a crime”, in a strong rebuke of the Trump administration’s probe into the central bank chief from a senior member of the president’s own party. Read the remarks from Tim Scott, chair of the powerful Senate banking committee.

The Big Read

Sanae Takaichi, the arch-conservative and populist, is on course for a possible landslide in the shortest election campaign in postwar Japanese history. The excitement around Takaichi is a domestic phenomenon but the ramifications of Sunday’s elections will be global.

We’re also reading . . . 

Chart of the day

When Trump announced a long-awaited US-India trade deal on Monday, the president claimed a commitment by New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil had made the agreement possible. But the reluctance of Indian leaders to confirm such a pledge is fuelling deep scepticism among analysts that any substantial cut is imminent.

Take a break from the news . . . 

Looking for a place to stay in Hong Kong? FT Globetrotter has you covered, from the city’s grandes dames to new design classics.