華僑銀行:今年香港GDP增長將放緩至2.6% (18:16) – 20260203 – 即時財經新聞

房地產方面,姜靜指出,本港樓市已於去年見底回升,政府數據顯示樓價去年上升約 3.3%。她預期今年樓價可再升約5%,租金升幅約4.5%。

她解釋,樓市回暖主要受樓價負擔能力改善、「買租差距」收窄、政策放寬及人才計劃推動需求等因素支持。不過,成交量回升幅度仍遠低於過往樓市調整後的反彈水平,反映買家情緒改善但仍偏審慎,加上按揭利率下行空間有限,令樓價升幅受制。

至於商業房地產,她對核心區甲級寫字樓相對看好,指出自去年下半年起需求已有回升跡象,空置率開始回落,租金及價格有望趨於穩定,惟相關復蘇未必擴散至零售鋪位等其他商業物業,後者價格仍可能面對下行壓力。

姜靜稱,香港經濟與美國相似,資產較多及受惠於人工智能(AI )浪潮的家庭與高收入人士,將在資產價格回升中獲得較多好處,而部分行業及中低收入群體仍面對壓力。不過,她認為這種分化屬短期現象,隨着就業市場逐步改善,失業率有望在約3.8%見頂後回落,尤其當零售進一步改善。

另外,姜靜指出,去年本港外貿表現強勁,全年出口增長約15%,惟今年在高基數及全球經濟增長略為放慢的背景下,出口增速料回落至高單位數水平,約8%。她強調,這反映的是增速正常化,而非外貿前景轉差,整體展望仍然偏向審慎樂觀。

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