摩根資管:美上半年受惠退稅助經濟增長達3.5% 料聯儲局減息半厘 (17:13) – 20251204 – 即時財經新聞

美國中期選舉方面,許長泰認為中期選舉可能成為加速降息或推動財政刺激的因素,但他對其能否快速帶動實體經濟增長持懷疑態度,因政策對經濟有滯後性,且財政刺激面臨國會阻力和債市反應的雙重挑戰。

許長泰建議,明年的投資策略需具備更高的彈性。上半年應維持股票優先配置,建議「股六債四」,主因是美國上半年有退稅刺激,且AI(人工智能)投資主題對亞洲出口有正面幫助。然而,下半年隨著美國經濟明顯放緩,建議將股債比例推向平衡,甚至以債券為優先。在債券配置上,當前應採取「啞鈴策略」,同時配置政府債和高收益債;年中之後,當經濟表現趨於平穩甚至放緩,則轉向投資級債券,以尋求更高的安全性。

至於黃金,許不認為它是對沖股票風險的工具,因為其與股票的走勢關係不一致,但由於央行買入、地緣政治等因素,黃金的最終需求依然存在,故仍建議投資者持有,但目的應釐清為預期價格上漲。

美股AI板塊股份方面,他預計回調幅度可能達到10%至15%,持續兩到三個月,符合市場調整周期。至於板塊輪動,雖然科技股仍是應長期持有的資產,但在短期調整期間,建議投資者可留意以下方向:聯儲局降息預期導致的利率曲線變斜,有利於銀行擴闊淨息差;加上近期併購(M&A)及首次公開招股(IPO)活動回暖,亦有助於銀行盈利。此外,美國AI數據中心對電力需求激增,但供應增長緩慢,導致電費可能上升,使電力公司成為較吸引的抗通脹資產。

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京東工業第二日招股 暫超購9.6倍

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遇見小麵被指賣預製菜 前員工稱八成都是預製

碧桂園境外債重組據報獲香港法院批准 股價現跌近2%

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商湯聯合創始人王曉剛任大曉機器人董事長 本月中推多個產品

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澳洲會計師公會:54%受訪者料明年香港GDP升0.1%至2.9%

大埔宏福苑五級火|傳有人到銀行改地址為宏福苑疑騙取資助 匯豐渣打等出招應對

本港第二季信用卡新卡發卡量跌23.5% 創疫情以來最大跌幅

恒指半日升48點 機械人概念股受捧 三花智控升逾9%

A股三大指數中午齊高收 創板指曾升逾1%

大埔宏福苑五級火|大新銀行延長周末服務 支援受影響居民

港投去年投資收入23億 CEO陳家齊年薪720萬

港元拆息普遍向上 一個月HIBOR連升2日 見近一周高

據報債券投資者憂哈塞特為取悅特朗普 出任聯儲局主席後大幅減息

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